Accordingly to Mark Jacobs, with some approximation, the current “active” subscription numbers should be somewhere around 600k.

This is the logic:

Our retention rate is higher than 70% based on current data. DAoC was indeed 72% in North America. WAR’s number is higher and remains higher than DAoC since billing began. I’m quite happy with WAR’s numbers as they are exactly what I expected they would be.

800k is the number of registered accounts accordingly to EA (see the recent financial report).

75% is my guesstimate on retention rate, since Mark Jacobs states here that it’s higher than the 72% of DAoC.

75% of 800k is 600k.

Imho, the number will drop. By how much will depend on too many variables. The game is supposed to grow for a few months, this is what Mark Jacobs expects. But with WotLK release it will have an hard time. From January onward a lot will depend on the quality of the games, but I doubt Warhammer is going to improve. Mythic is already working to add more scenarios.

Unrelated, from Q23:

I heard that the layoffs started hitting Mythic today. Just three so far.