Guild Wars and Eve-Online subscribers situation

Just to archive semi-old data for my “subscriptions” category.

About the situation of Guild Wars, a post from SirBruce:

NCsoft has announced sales figures for Guild Wars. The game sold 650,000 copies in the US and Europe, but only 27,000 in Korea. Total sales are about US$27.5m versus US$50m forecast.

Arenanet’s operate costs are about US$9m/year. Guild Wars itself cost ~US$16m, including marketing costs. If NCSoft is committed to the product, they’re going to have to release 1.5 – 2 expansions a year and hope they sell consistently to keep the game profitable.


Since NCsoft is also the publisher, it’s all theirs, minus COGS of course, but how much does A.Net get? That’s the real question. If it’s a set percentage, then they might not be, as a “division”, profitable. If NCSoft decides to operate it at a “loss”, that’s fine, so long as the company is making money overall.

But you’d better believe they need to do expansions within three years, because you left out development costs. Box sales have recouped the games costs and covered A.Net for one year, but each year it’s going to cost about $9M a year to operate. So you have to generate at least that much in box sales every year through expansions, plus however much it costs to actually produce that expansion — probably not as much as the whole game itself, but still, not chump change. And you have, of course, opportunity cost to consider — sure, maybe GW is making money, but is it really the best use of NCSoft’s money, or could they make more with a traditional subscription-based game?

Now, 1-2 GW expansion per year should be okay, even if only half the people who bought the first box buy the second one, but you don’t want that number to keep declining or you’ll be in trouble really quick. Also, A.Net had already missed its first “window” for an expansion; they won’t have one until next year. So it remains to be seen if they are even CAPABLE of delivering on schedule.

More data about the situation in Korea at Terra Nova.

Someone also doubted od the possible failure since the 26-27k reported is about the licences sold to PC-bangs and not actual subscription numbers. It seems that Lineage 1 has just around 19k of those licences active. Which would transform the apparent complete failure of the game into a huge success.

The numbers on Terra Nova contradict this hypothesis, though. So it’s hard to understand what is going on.


About Eve-Online the situation is more clear. CCP is organizing to try to push the game in the eastern market as well but for now there are just normal subscriptions following a positive, always growing trend. Which is the best a mmorpg could aspire to and that rewards one of the most original and less derivative products out there.

11.7.2005 – New Online Record

Yesterday, Sunday, you set a new online player record when 12.895 of you were playing at the same time! No reports of lag were reported, the ‘cold war edition’ seems to have yet again lessened the server load.

More details about the actual subscription numbers from a rather recent post on the forums:

1. How many suscribers does EVE currently have?

I think we just went past 60.000 paying subscribers the other day. That means an active account which is being paid for and is the industry standard for “subscriber”.

World of Warcraft 1.6.0

The patch is released. There are direct links to mirrors everywhere (like here) so it shouldn’t be hard to bypass Blizzard’s downloader.

This and all the past patches are archived and available here. Also accessible from the “repository” link on the sidebar.

As always many players (me included) are having probems applying the patch and there are some complaints on the technical forums. I have updated my guide that should help to check the file integrity and monitor step by step the patching progress to understand what exactly is going wrong.

P.S.
I *hate* “Blessing of Sanctuary” sparkling effect, it hits on my nerves. Hard.

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Quests or missions?

A quote from Brian Koontz discussing how derivative Auto Assault already feels. But the quote is valid for a bunch of different situations:

Have you ever noticed that in fantasy settings they are called “quests” and in sci-fi settings they are called “missions”? WHOA… killer innovation there! A whole different series of letters to talk about the same thing. What will these creative juggernauts think of next?

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Mythic prays to be right

The last Grab Bag is interesting. To begin with it dispels the doubts about the “Catacombs” expansion (enabled on the new ruleset servers) being dependent on ToA (which is going to be ditched):

Q: Do I need to own TOA in order to activate Catacombs on the new server?

A: On the new server, you do not need to own the TOA expansion.

I guess the time will finally obliterate the work put on ToA, which is somewhat a sad thing. Or, as Dave Rickey said:

The current Live team has their work cut out for them, and I wish them well.

And here is the important point. As I wrote elsewhere this new ruleset is questioning the work of the devs. This is why Dave “wishes well” to them. Because this whole project of the new server is basically a failure declaration. It cannot be read in any other way if not a complete failure.

Or maybe not. In fact, if you delve some more, you could be able to see a glimpse of what is the real stance of Mythic’s devs. They are still NEGATING the whole thing. They are negating that ToA was a failure, they are negating that the idea to give DAoC a new insane grind was a failure, they are negating the HOLES in the design and gameplay. This is the real reason why ToA wasn’t fixed after all this time. Because noone has ever acknowledged the problems. Noone has learnt A DAMN THING. They stand behind two similar positions: fear of being kicked out because of their failure and a constant denial of the problems in order to defend their work (and chair).

They DO NOT want to accept (or maybe cannot, because it means a crisis of their role) that they made some mistakes and that those mistakes must be considered, acknowledged and then addressed in order to let the game grow instead of sink inesorably.

In fact this is their actual stance on this whole thing:

Walt Yarbrough:
This is aimed at many of our former customers, not our current ones. Our satisfaction is high in the polls that we take of our current customers.

He thinks that their current customers love their game, love ToA, love the buffbots. He believes that the players are completely satisfied by Mythic’s offer. He does not believe that the new ruleset could appeal even to them. He does not believe that the new ruleset addresses serious problems that the game objectively has… He just thinks that all these issues are SUBJECTIVE points of view. NONE of Mythic’s work in these years has been a failure. NONE of their work is being questioned by all this. Nothing at all is being questioned, is being examined, is being acknowledged. NOTHING AT ALL IS BEING LEARNT. It’s a *denial*, complete denial of everything happening to the game.

And that stance has been now backed up directly by Sanya in the Grab Bag:

This new server type is meant for people who would otherwise not play DAOC at this time. I don’t expect that most people currently playing are going to do much more than roll on the new server out of pure curiosity. I DO expect that the people with active accounts who try the new toy will eventually go back to their “home” servers. And I hope that people who are reactivating just for this ruleset decide to stay.

This server is just an attempt to meet the needs of a niche group of players.

Listen carefully. ALL of you out there thinking that DAoC has “a few” consistent problems in the design. ALL OF YOU… You are just a fucking niche. You are a tiny, little, irrelevant annoyance. A minority of ranters who know nothing about their huge subscription base that, after being sagely polled, has been declared totally satisfied.

And remember:

Future expansions and patches will be primarily designed for the more typical servers.

Because they are so fucking stubborn that they won’t understand what is going on till the last paying player will vanish to never come back. And even then I have my doubts that they would be able to “get” it.

Thick as a brick.

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[WoW] Hunter Shot Cooldown Explained!

Hi all, this motive, the lead QA tester for WoW. I have some information regarding the Hunter spell cooldown bug that will hopefully set the record straight once and for all. I will basically provide information regarding how the spell worked in 1.4.2 (and previously), how it worked in 0.5.0 (in its broken state) and how it is going to work now.

As you all undoubtedly know, the special Hunter shots all have cooldowns associated with them that are displayed in their tooltips. I will refer to this value as C below.
As you also undoubtedly know, every ranged weapon has a unique weapon speed. I will refer to this value as S below.

How cooldown was calculated and displayed in 1.4.2
In 1.4.2, the client displayed a different cooldown than the server actually enforces. This is a bug, and the calculations were as follows:

The client pulls its displayed cooldown as exactly C, the cooldown of the spell as listed in its tooltip.
The server calculates the actual enforced cooldown with the formula: (C + S) – 500ms. (The extra 500ms is subtracted from C + S to account for latency and is done with all spells, not just Hunter spells)

For Example, Aimed Shot with an advertised cooldown of 6 seconds using a 2.0 attack speed weapon was calculated as follows:

Client Displayed Cooldown = 6.0 seconds
Server Enforced Cooldown = 6.0 + 2.0 – 0.5 = 7.5 seconds

This may explain why a lot of people noticed that hunter shots used to sometimes display a “Spell not ready yet” error if they were attempted to be used again before this “invisible” 1.5 seconds of extra cooldown time had not passed on the server.

How cooldown was calculated and displayed in 0.5.0 (broken)
In 0.5.0, the client was told to match its cooldown display to what the server was actually enforcing:

The client calculates its displayed cooldown with the formula: C + S.
The server still calculates the actual enforced cooldown with the formula: C + S – 500ms.

For Example, Aimed Shot with an advertised cooldown of 6 seconds using a 2.0 attack speed weapon was calculated as follows:

Client Displayed Cooldown = 6.0 + 2.0 = 8.0 seconds
Server Enforced Cooldown = 6.0 + 2.0 – 0.5 = 7.5 seconds

The problem here was that even though the server did not actually enforce any change to the cooldown time, adding the weapon speed to the cooldown time caused the client to not allow the user to cast the spell again, even though, if it had, the server would have let them do so. Not only did this change make the cooldown timers FEEL a lot worse because they were now visible on the client instead of just server-side, on top of this, the lack of the 500ms latency grace period made Hunters actually fire slower than they should, and decreased DPS. This was obviously a bug that will be fixed in the following manner.

How cooldown will be calculated and displayed in 1.5.0 Release
We are fixing both issues described above. In short, we are removing the weapon speed addition to the cooldown on both the server and the client.

The client pulls its displayed cooldown as exactly C, the cooldown of the spell as listed in its tooltip.
The server calculates the actual enforced cooldown with the formula: C – 500ms.

For Example, Aimed Shot with an advertised cooldown of 6 seconds using a 2.0 attack speed weapon will be calculated as follows:

Client Displayed Cooldown = 6.0 seconds
Server Enforced Cooldown = 6.0 = 5.5 seconds

In other words, Hunter DPS will increase slightly as a result of the cooldowns of all of their special shots actually decreasing by their attack speed. The fact that weapon speed was added to these cooldowns was never intended behavior. We designed the abilities around the cooldown being what the tooltips have always claimed. The only spell that will still display the weapon speed in its cooldown is Auto Shot.

The last calculation above looks incorrect, but it is important to note that the fact that the server enforced cooldown is less than the client displayed cooldown is irrelevant. The user is still not able to actually cast the spell until the client-side cooldown has elapsed.

As an additional note, none of the information above takes quiver/ammo pouch weapon speed adjustment into consideration, but for those of you who want to know, that information is subtracted in the following manner (using the same terminology as above and assuming we’re still adding S to C in the original bugged system):

(C + S) * (1 – RangedHaste%)

Assuming a 6 second Arcane Shot cooldown, a 3.5 speed weapon and a 15% ranged haste quiver the cooldown would be:

(6.0 + 3.5) * (1.0 – 0.15) = 8.075

I hope this clears up any confusion that the last few days have caused. Feel free to post any questions you might have about anything that I have outlined above.

A power-gamer hand-job

From WoW’s official forums, a well written rant:

The more I play on the test server the less I feel like continuing to be a WoW subscriber. The battle grounds are a half-assed CS\UT\Q3 meets EQ attempt missing what Mythic did so well with DAOC. The objectives are silly and have no real involvment with the world or the story. To use an analogy WoW is to RVR and PVP what the Game Boy is to Game Counsoles, fun but in a superfical way.

There is no real sense of epic battle or purpose, it’s like playing counter-strike. Yeah there are objectives but no content to it. The rewards are useless, the honor system is nothing more then a power-gamer hand-job leaving most casual players in the dust (nothing like having a full molten core geared rogue 2-shot your 60 warrior for 5k in damage before the sap even breaks.) and has no sense of Horde vs. Alliance.

DAOC had a wonderful BG system that gave people a track that lead them to the Frontier zones where there was an on-going battle that actually had a purpose. It’s as if WoW can’t make up it’s mind on how it wants it’s PvP system to world. One one side it’s a half-asses PvP system modeled after EQ’s PvP system and the other hand it’s a really piss-poor RvR system based off of DAOC.

People are motived by Goals and Rewards. So are guilds, tribes, and nations. PvP\RvR in WoW has no real rewards except for sub-standard gear with the exception of the top 5% of the customers. By Blizzards own admission the way the PvP rewards work until you hit the top 10% or so you’re not going to get much in the way of rewards.

Yeah they’re going to add more content. Yeah in 6 months it will be better, but we need new customers coming in now and most quit now before hitting level 30 because they can’t exp in contested zones. 60’s are leaving in droves it seems from bordom. In the guild I am in we have 40+ 60s, half don’t bother to log in anymore as once you hit 60 there’s nothing to do except what? Farm MC\Dragon and kill the same people over and over with no outcome to the RvR except what? CPs? BFD. Most 60 have better equipment then the high end RvR guild and who wants to farm CPs? People had to farm to get to 60 now they have to farm to get CPs? Try some goals, there needs to be s sense of adventure to keep players interested. The path Blizzard seems to be taking is supposed to appeal to a broader base of players and casual players but there’s nothing to show for it. CPs? BFD. Where is WAR between the Hoarde and Alliance? Where do I go to see 60 horde seiging a castle and leaving it in rubble? Where is the razing of Tarren Mill rather then a non-stop teeter-totter match where no one wins?

Perhaps that’s the issue both in the game and in life; we’re so busy trying to make everyone winners that we lose the excitement and drama of winning and losing. Not to sound like a film major but where is the drama in WoW with this giant battle? I really hope RvR can pull WoW out of it’s decline (Quality Wise) with this many subscribers I hope WoW does not end up the greatest MMOG (There is 0 Role-playing in these games, drop the R already…) FAD in gaming history.

I promised to give WoW a chance till the BGs went live and I’m holding to it but so far there are better choices for online games.

The underline is mine.

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Vanguard – “From Brad to the catasses”, a game manifesto

I archive here the game “manifesto” that Brad McQuaid posted on FoH boards.


When we’re looking at revenue forecasts as well as when we’re designing the game we’re looking at long term customer retention with the realization that the majority of money made from MMOGs is from subscriptions not box sales. 250,000 I think is conservative… 500,000 would be just fine… both look pretty good though when doing the math and planning on players playing months and even years.

If the ‘core’ gamer is running out of things to do now (and I say ‘core’, not hard core, because I’m not just reading posts and talking to people who are part of that minority of gamers who play like madmen), then how much longer will the ‘casual’ gamer be entertained?

I’m not here to criticize Blizzard’s plan (nor am I even privy to it), but I can say what ours is, and it’s to keep the average MMOG gamer around for a long time. And we realize this likely means we won’t see sales in the millions. But we took EQ 1 up to 400,000+ for three years with very few cancellations, and I know the game continued with those numbers for quite a while after I left. And that’s the kind of success we’re looking for again with Vanguard.

I know the counter-argument, that those players won’t tolerate another EQ 1 and its advancement pace — that MMOGs have to be designed differently now, targeting the more casual gamer and also the gamer who allegedly has less time to play than he or she did in the past, or who just won’t tolerate anything even resembling a “grind”.

But I don’t buy it. Sure, some people are burned out. But we also hear from a LOT of old school MMOG gamers who want that longer term game again… who want a home again. And if we combine those people with even a small percentage of new MMOG gamers, who were probably exposed to persistent worlds by games like WoW, then it’s simply not that crazy to assume we can get the numbers I’m talking about for Vanguard.

Only time will tell, and I know people will disagree with me. But we really need to be right — not just for Vanguard, but for the genre in general. We can’t just give up, throw our hands into the air, and say EQ 1s were a fluke and that core gamers have somehow fundamentally changed since then such that they won’t or can’t subscribe for years ever again. Were that true, we’d never see the virtual worlds of the scope and scale we all dream about developed. Maybe we are old school, maybe past successes were a fluke, maybe we’re dinosaurs. But I’m betting not.


Btw, I just wanted to be extra clear here and state that I have nothing but respect for Blizzard. I am concerned that they might not be ready to put out new content fast enough, but time will tell.

My post was more to explain Vanguard’s plan and philosophy and how it differs from WoW’s. I think choices are good and am glad MMOG gamers have more choices now in terms of what style and pace of gameplay suits them.

I’m also very happy in a selfish way I suppose that Blizzard showed that the MMOG gamespace is far from saturated as many people were claiming before its release. And, as I alluded to, because of their name cache and their ability to attract gamers who probably would never have tried an MMOG (due to their other fine games and consistent quality they produce) they’ve done us all a huge favor.

Vanguard and WoW have different target audiences and different philosophies behind them, but I also think that a significant percentage of people who tried WoW as their first MMOG are going to finish playing it and find themselves wanting more… and that’s perfect for Vanguard. No, not every casual gamer is going to be converted into a core or hard core gamer, but IMHO enough will that when combined with the old school MMOG gamers Vanguard will have plenty of people interested in it.

Plus, this was a good opportunity to let everyone know that going after millions in the short term as a business strategy doesn’t mean that going after hundreds of thousands in the long term isn’t still viable.

I also think they had/have a vision too, and that they stuck with it (again, who their target audience was, their use of lower tech as opposed to pushing the limits of graphics cards, etc.) And while our vision is obviously different, they at least have one whereas I fear some other more recent games don’t know what they want or where they want to go… being reactive instead of proactive isn’t a good plan when making and maintaining an MMOG at this time.

WoW’s Battlegrounds – A precisation

This is a comment I wrote on QT3 as a follow-up to this other comment.

> “IF this last change is a result of a bug, the thread has no reason to exist.”

Just requoting myself.

I criticize a lot about both the Honor System and the implementation of the Battlegrounds. Some problems are absolutely objective and widely acknowledged everywhere like the durability hit on the equipment, the flags disappearing etc… Other problems and considerations, instead, are mine specifically and are less easy to discover because more deep-rooted into the system and harder to explain.

When I post about something it’s mostly to underline those parts that I know won’t be noticed or discussed, in fact, most of the players will just ignore what I say. Because I’m a voice outside the chorus and I do not try to amplify the general point of view.

The point is, again, that I don’t know anymore what’s a bug and what’s a deliberate design choice since I consider the system broken on a number of aspects. So I could expect that the flags will be fixed before the BGs will be released but I’m sure that most of my other critics will remain unquestioned.

That’s all. Once they confirm that something is a bug, I’m happy and I’m done. But it’s when the design choices are broken and intentional that I have the interest to start a discussion.

I won’t say a thing if I’m confident that the issues will be worked out. The fact is that I hate the current Honor System already as it exists on the live servers. So I have my reasons to underline those issues that aren’t so obvious and that are being ignored.

On the official forums Kalgan confirmed that the last change I criticized is unintended and the result of a bug.

If a particular aspect of a game draws a lot of attention (like it happened in this case) I lose every interest to rant about it and I’ll probably ignore the issue altogether. When a problem is absolutely obvious there’s no need to underline it even more, that’s why I say I’m a voice out of the chorus. Most of my critiques aren’t so widely acknowledged and that’s why I try to draw attention on them: because noone is questioning those parts. Noone is discussing them.

The demagogy isn’t useful and I don’t want it around here. This last problem has been acknowledged by the devs so I’m happy and done with it as well. There’s no reason to rant more about it.

But now let’s consider all the other issues. Because the whole PvP system is STILL broken and most of the issues aren’t being properly discussed. It’s there that I want the attention.

A legal form of griefing
Kalgan/Evocare tops the idiocy
WoW’s Battlegrounds – The fundamental problem
(fears about) Emergent behaviours in WoW’s PvP (to vanish)
– And another collection of critiques PvP Honor System – Enjoy

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More “TES4: Oblivion” hype (owned)

From the discussion going on at QT3 – Kathode and Ashileedo are from Bethesda:

HRose:
Okay, maybe the NPCs will move around, eat and go to sleep. But what about the details? They’ll just sleep randomly everywhere? Or they will discern between their own bed, their own bread etc..? Do the commodities are in a finite number? Do they respawn at will or the game will reach a point where all the NPCs will finish the supplies and die of starving?

Kathode:
They’ll discern between their own possessions and other people’s possessions. We have a crime system and thus, ownership data on just about everything. No dying of starvation, NPCs dying offscreen at random = bad.

HRose:
Okay, you have a physic engine but how it will be implemented? Are you modeling each candle, bone, plate, goblet, plate, fork, spoons etc..?

Kathode:
Every object on top of the table in the picture you linked has physics applied, save the candles (actually I’m not sure about the candles come to think of it). Every fork, plate, piece of armor, yada yada. Yes. Believe it. If you throw stuff around, people get annoyed, but it is not game breaking, because that would suck.

HRose:
An unrelated curiosity if you can answer: which engine the game is using? It’s still Netimmerse/Gamebryo or you moved to something else?

Kathode:
Gamebryo is the renderer, most of the rest of it is our own stuff.

QT3 habitue:
I’m really curious as to whether Oblivion will be as moddable as Morrowind, and specifically whether the AI packages will be moddable. Because then — whoa.

Kathode:
Yeah, absolutely. PC users will get the same tools we have, just like in Morrowind. All the AI functionality is done through menus with normal drag and drop and list style interfaces. And unlike the tools we’re using now, the tools you get won’t be in a constant state of development :)

I fully expect lots of amazing AI mods to come out.

QT3 habitue:
When I read that, it sounded like the packages responded to attributes that could fluctuate, like hunger. However I can’t see how what you’re describing would have caused this situation to happen. Could you explain how the Radiant AI system caused these particular (and humorous) situations to develop? It would clarify matters for me

Kathode:
They have a single hunger state which amounts to “go get food.” Usually we tell them where they should go get food if none is immediately available. In that instance we didn’t, and the guard discerned that the most immediate source of food was a nearby deer. Now what should have happened is that he should have realized that killing the deer would be a crime, and done a check vs. his responsibility score, and gone to look for other sources. But that process failed at some point, and he went off and killed the deer.

HRose:
The reason why I asked if they are going to model all the objects on that table is because I KNOW that they WON’T.

In every game with a physic engine till today only a few selected objects have been modeled. We have crates, cans, bottles, ammo clips and not much more. It’s not important to figure out why the physic engine has been only marginally used. The point is that only a few lesser environmental garbage will have a physic model. Even in Oblivion (traps, bones, arrows for all we know. For sure not much more).

This is why I’m sceptic when they give the illusion that all the world follows those rules, like the arrow in the bucket. That’s again a specifically scripted event to demonstrate a POTENTIAL, not the effective game.

I’m just saying that they put on display their “intention” and a nice graphic engine. But this doesn’t really give us any idea about how the actual gameplay of the game will work.

I’ll run in the street naked if the final game will really model all the objects on that screenshot.

Ashileedo:
Hi, just popping in here. I’m going to hold you to this. Remember the screenshot you posted. Everything on that table right?

I expect to see a picture of you running around naked in the street after we’ve finished the game and you’ve gone out, bought it, played it, and knocked every object off that table.

Tom nailed this right on. What is a demo but the potential of what a game could be?

…owned?

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