DDO: Rumors of implosion

There’s a thread on Q23.

Here I know really nothing, so I don’t have a clue about what’s relevant, what isn’t, what’s true, what’s false. That DDO was doomed was already pretty obvious long before release, exactly as it was obvious for AC2. Just wait. Remember that AC2 was a major failure and STILL resisted for how long? Three years?

The news is that Ken Troop leaves Turbine to move to Wizard of the Coast. No clue about what this means. Here some quotes from the comments on Jason Booth website:

Anonymous 1:
I worked with Jason Booth at Turbine for almost 9 years. I can honestly say that he would always tell it like it is. Many times managment would not like to talk about the big white elephant in the room, but Jason would shine a light on it. Many managment folks resented him for that, but he was always right.

Anonymous 2:
Jason was just uncouth about how he approached things. That’s what led to his being fired from Turbine.

I recall when he told Robert Blackadder (the senior producer at the time) to “fuck off, I do what I want and answer only to Jeff Anderson” when Rob tried to schedule him for tasks. Or when the time he and Dan Ogles threw a fit when it was announced that Wizards wanted to change the combat system so it was more in line with traditional MMOs. Or when Jason walked out of a meeting as a form of “protest”.

Things like that don’t belong in a professional environment on any level.

Jason Boot:
clearly you have a nack for re-writting history; I never told Rob ‘fuck off, I only listen to Anderson’. I think I only talked to Jeff about 4 times that year, so he’s hardly the person I would be responding too.

Yes, I was always a controversial figure at Turbine. Love me or hate me, agree or disagree, I was going to let people know what I thought. But if we all just kissed ass and said things were great when they clearly were not then you wouldn’t have a place in this world; and that wouldn’t be good, now, would it?

Anonymous 2:
The point was not that you expressed a differing opinion. It was how you expressed it. Be professional about it, for God’s sake.

Funny how Rob himself told several of us one day that you yourself told him to “fuck off”. Why would he make that up?

Bottom line though is that I agree with you about the credits. People who worked on the game, especially those who worked on it for as long as you did, obviously contributed and therefore should have received credit. You were robbed.

Troop, btw, left to go to Wizards of the Coast. He can now fuck things up over there. Go go gadget ignorance!

Jason Boot:
Getting things done at Turbine required extreme measures. At harmonix, you simply have to state a reasonable case and someone will give you a reasonable answer and rational. But lets face it, whoever you are, you know that isn’t the case at Turbine. Someone up high gets a whim, and suddenly everything is pulled out from under you. That doesn’t make for good development, or good company health. You sit waiting for the axe to fall, because you know it will. There’s a reason DDO shipped and MEO hasn’t, and ignoring the problems was a big reason why.

Now, I will readily admit to some evil enjoyment in certain cases, but I am much happier not having to come down with a nuclear warhead when some bone headed move comes down the pipe. Those are the exact types of things that managers are supposed to filter out in advance, and that company heriarchy is supposed to protect people from. Instead, the filter seemed to work in the oposite direction. I shouldn’t have to deliver the mail to show management that they are wasting money by not hiring an intern to do the task. That having every developer on the project sift through a giant box looking for thier mail each day is a really bad use of resources. These things should be obvious, and if they are not, it should be easy to point them out and not require theatrics.

As for Ken, as I told him at GDC, I think he makes a lot more sense there than at a video game company.

Back from Q23:

Rumours peg DDO subscription numbers around 40000-50000. Concurrent connections around 15000.

Engineering Director Justin Quimby also has bailed for Maxis.

The low number of concurrent users is also having a strong negative and active impact on the players since it brings to serious LFG problems. How surprising, huh?

Rumors of gloom and doom are being weakly restrained on the official forum:

DDO is not coming to an end. We are still seeing steady growth in our subscriptions every day.

Another random quote, as an unreliable source:

By March 14th they had between 20k and 40k sales (30k +/- 10k). Now, you are saying that DDO has increased it’s playerbase to 160k, or more specifically, 800% since the 20k pre-release that were avail on day one and through all of this has not had to open 1 extra server? really??? no, seriously… I mean it? You are saying that?

Not only that but you are saying a game with a playerbase of 160k only manages to have 150-250 players online during peak play hours (Between 3PM and 9PM PST) on normal pop servers and the 3 highest servers garner 300-450 during those same hours?

Remember the Golden Rule of the mmorpg industry: the more you fuck up the higher you will be promoted.

Come on, prove me wrong.

No more muddy textures in Oblivion

There’s one impressive mod that really improves considerably the graphic quality of the far clip plane in Oblivion. No more muddy textures!

There’s a demonstration screenshot showing the result.

I tested it and there’s absolutely no impact on the FPS.

And it looks amazing. Impressive. In some parts it looks BETTER than the narrow terrain (which has the awful “tiled” effect).

Consider that this is just the beginning. The guy who did that mod just took the “soup” textures, enlarged them and sharpened them. Someone with a bit of skill could actually add much more detail and make the transition even more smooth.

Here starts the 360 jealousy toward PC-only mods ;)

I’ll have to open a page for Oblivion where I can gather all the informations and mods that look interesting.

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April Fools

So.

Lum left Mythic to become a designer, Shadowbane is free, Wolfpack is closing down, Raph left SOE, Bioware is working on a mmorpg and Oblivion is super-cool.

And I don’t think we’re done yet.

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Shattering paradigms

Answering to Amberyl in the form of a new post:

There’s a niche in the market for the super hardcore, undoubtedly. I’m just not convinced that there are 500,000 super-hardcore players who want to play Vanguard specifically (as opposed to, let’s say, EVE and whatever other games come along targeting that market).


The problem of the “hardcore” target is inconsistent.

If Vanguard aims to the current hardcore players it will simply fail. Without a doubt. Statistical data is useless when you start a new project. New games TRANSFORM the players and create their own audience. They make the rules change completely. They CRUSH expectations and implicit rules. They create new paradigms going against all reasonable premises. They don’t behave as we expect. They don’t follow the same patterns we already traced.

All the guesswork done by industry analysts is bullshit. It’s just a temporary theory with no foundation that will systematically crumble as a castle of cards. They just play on the back of a whale till the next wave wipes them off. Short-lived as all the premises on which this whole industry is built. Arbitrary, unfounded assumptions. Hoping to be right when they intimately know it’s all bullshit. And yet they fool themselves.

So, imho, the goal of Vanguard is not to create a game for a niche. Buy ferrying new and former players to that paricular style that the game is going to promote. Whatever it will be. Pretty much what WoW is doing right now.

Casuals and Hardcore are myths. They are completely inconsistent, vaporous. This fracture didn’t exist on past data. It was CREATED.

WoW made it more glaring and critical because they opposed one part to the other. They made it emerge. They built a barrier and two different styles one going against the other. This is not something that the game suffered passively. This is something that the game TRIGGERED. Purposely.

All the statistical data coming from the current games is bullshit. It serves no purpose if not creating commonplaces with no consistence. You cannot see the current trends because what determines these trends are not the trends themselves, but what brought to them: the games.

New games can create new trends, new public and they can completely overthrow the situation as we know it.

This is why Vanguard’s goal isn’t about wagering at the current hardcore players, but creating its own space and value. Converting both current and potential players to its own way. Attracting those players as a magnet. Transforming them. Building its own audience in its own way. Opening a door that wasn’t there before.

The current trends mean jack shit. What matters is solely the concrete value of the game and if it is enough to attract the players.

You win your public not if you meet their expectations. You win the public if you convince them with something or better or different.

Successful games IMPOSE their paradigms, they create trends. They enter the field without asking “please”. They create a public out of empty air as it happened, unexpectedly, for WoW.

This is why we speak of innovation. Because it’s the key that reveals how our convictions hold no truth.

Which is what pretty much everyone is saying (and penguins, and all that stuff). With the difference that I don’t believe that the innovation needs to come through brand new genres.

Our “fantasy”, silly games have still A WHOLE LOT to say. If you allow them.

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PvP theory in Warhammer

Arthur Parker continues to leech informations, this time from the May issue of CGM. I’ll quote the relevant parts and add some comments:

Being Green In the Warhammer universe, there are 14 known armies and lots of other races that are references, but in the initial release, we’ll see only six (seven if you seperate Orcs and Goblins, which most people do not.) There are two loose aliance: Agents of Order – Empire (Humans), Dwarfs (not “Dwarves”), and High Elves – and the Agents of Destruction – Greenskins (Orcs and Goblins), Chaos (Humans), and Dark Elves. This provides for three battlefronts: Greenskins vs. Dwarfs, Chaos vs. Empire, and Dark Elves vs. High Elves.

This already says a lot about the RvR structure. Orcs and goblins are clumped together and count as one, so it’s basically two factions that can then be branched into three different contrapositions.

I’m not sure they are planning this smartly, though. It looks as the beginning of the game will have unique zones by race, so the PvP will be about the “one vs one”, instead of the “three vs three”. If this is true it will bring to problems. We already know that the “levelling game” (Warhammer seems to have no levels, but I’ll come to this point later) tends to work like a wave of water that progresses uniformly till it reaches a “wall” (the level cap) and then starts to stagnate. (see the second graph)

It makes sense, in particular in a PvP environment where you depend on other players to have fun, to clump together the players in the newbie zones so that they can meet more easily, then opening up the endgame, where there are more played piled up, so with the possibility to spread them more without having population issues. This already happened in DAoC, where they had to consolidate the starting points to one per realm because the early game was desolate and it was impossible to meet other players and group.

This doesn’t happen in WoW for other reasons. The newbie zones are fragmented because the game starts as “single player”. The newbie zone is nothing more than a tutorial and it is perfectly balance to have a single player flow, without your character depending on other players. You can easily do all the content available in the game without grouping till level 10, when you move in a larger zone and where you can find more complex quests that may need some collaboration.

But WoW at level 10 isn’t a PvP game, not even on the PvP server. This is why Warhammer will have problems if Mythic wants to support PvP from the first minute without consolidating the players as much as possible.

A model similar to a branching tree would be more appropriate, with one zone for each faction (three vs three) and then branching up in more selective battlegrounds and scenarios. For the “flow” of the game it would make sense to just start in your race starting zone. But this would be about replicating the WoW’s model, which is definitely smarter: the game starts “slow”, giving you time to grasp it in “single player” and then slowly moving out to the contested zones where the PvP becomes a reality.

Remember that the PvP in WoW was BRILLIANT. The best EVER.

What sucked (and sucked badly) is the whole endgame development, with those horrid battlegrounds, the ridiculous honor system, the itemization and all the rest. The early PvP (minus the honor system that fucked up everything) was PURE GOLD.

The game will have player-versus-player combat from the get-go, but people who don’t care to participate in PvP can just as well carebear their way through the game entirely. Mythic has designed the content in four “tiers” of areas, each of which will have both PvE and PvP content, except on the PvP servers, where it will be everywhere, all the time. As you approach a PvP area, a mysterious voice says, “There is no stopping in the red zone,” and you become PvP flagged after five seconds. You can then choose to proceed, retreat, or say, “The white zone is for immediate loading and unloading of passengers only.” Once you step back, you’ll stay PvP flagged for five minutes, though. “What we don’t want,” says content director Destin Bales, “is for someone to go across the line, throw a fireball, then step back and go, ‘Neener neener neener.'”

This is exactly what I expected by reading the first hints.

Think to a zone, add two entry points at the opposite sides, one for the good guys, one for the bad guys. Then divide this zone vertically in three sections. The two at the extremities, near the entry points, are the “carebear zones”, where you can do your PvE stuff without getting bothered. The protected space, the PvE game. Then, as you go outside your zone, you enter a PvP space. The transition is seamless but as you cross the border you are flagged for PvP.

They only need to add some sort of objective in the middle that attracts the players, or the whole PvP will be along the borders, no matter of the five minute cooldown (and will also lead to some dull gameplay).

My opinion is that this “recipe for PvP” could work. At least if the players aren’t too spread out between too many zones and if there are some interesting environments with OBJECTIVES to fight for. PvP in a flat plan gets boring quickly so they need really to make the environment have a primary role and create interesting *contexts* to fight for, not just personal rewards.

I still think my model would work better, though. It would be more appropriate for an open PvP server (more points the more you move closer to the PvP hotspot). It would also lead to a more natural and varied environment instead of a silly definite line between PvP and PvE with a voice announcing that you moved to a warzone.

Mythic’s model works, but it could be much better, and easily. It’s still better than DAoC, thanks to a more seamless and natural transition from PvE to PvP.

I had an half-written article but I’ll add here the main point. A PvP game could be successful and dethrone WoW with enough resources. But the key to make the better PvP possible is in the PvE. It’s a countersense but it’s the real secret. A full PvP game won’t go anywhere. A game with PvP and PvE as two separate entities won’t go anywhere.

The key to the success is about using the PvE as a “bridge”. As a “gate” to the PvP. It should work as a smooth transition. Exactly following all I said about the sandbox games. You need to lead the players there, you need to make them understand how the game works. You need to slowly have them getting more “secure” about the game and their character. Confident.

The best PvP game will be the one where the PvE has a great value and accompanies the players to the other, more complex, form of gameplay. The two would be tightly interconnected. And not alienated one from the other as two different games innaturally coexisting.

Warhammer’s model accomplishes some of this, but not everything.

Faction Fiction One thing that you’ll notice is that, right from the start, War is everywhere. The core of the RvR combat is based on four layers of increasing sophistication. The first type is Skirmish Combat, where two guys just cross paths, hate each other, and fight. The winner will collect various rewards in experience, coin, items – they haven’t really ironed out the specifics yet.

The second type is called Battlefields: these are basically hotspots in a PvP area to which players will naturally be drawn. For example, there’ll be a ruined Dwarf village that may have some resources that are valuable to both sides. “We have so many proposals along this front that it’s scary,” says Bales, as he pats literally mountains and mountains and mountains of printouts of gameplay content. The next level is the Scenerio, which is instanced, open RvR combat. The battles here are quick, repeatable, last about five or ten minutes, and will be objective-based, using many of the basic paradigms of CTF, Deathmatch, King of the Hill, et al.

Some of this we already knew.

It seems that the “battlefields” are just a smaller set within a bigger one. An “hotspot” (battlefield) within the PvP area (skirmishes), so again part of the same seamless model that blends PvE with PvP.

Instead it’s the whole idea of “Scenarios” to suck. Noone wants another WoW with that stupid, artificial PvP borrowed from the FPS. It’s not a matter of queues, it’s a matter of scope and ambition. One thing is about adding objectives to PvP. Another is to transform everything into basic, redundant arcades that are just not appropriate for this genre. It’s just a direction that holds no virtue here and an experience that other game genres can and already deliver MUCH better.

So why chase WoW in this absurdity?

But it’s not over, because this stupid part is directly linked with the whole point of the game:

The overall victor of a Scenario will gain control of the entire zone (Skirmishes and Battlefield victories will come into play). This affects the fourth style of combat, the Campaign, which is, at the macro level, the heart of the game. In the fourth tier of zones lies a capital city for each front, and the objective, as you may imagine, is to take over the opponent’s capital and kill the leader and everyone else there (via Scenerio). Afterward the victors will retain control for some arbitrary time, say 24 hours, during which they may pillage and plunder to their hearts’ content. After that period of time, the game rebalances, forces you out of the city, and resets ownership of all the different maps, and the battle begins anew.

It’s here that things start to sound too weak.

Just join one line to the other and you can see how this idea just cannot work on paper, even less in a actual game:
“the battles here are quick, repeatable, last about five or ten minutes”
“the overall victor of a Scenario will gain control of the entire zone”

It is so flawed that it is probably a mistake done by the writer, or an early draft that just doesn’t make sense.

So we have more precise detail about the start of the game, this part looks solid even if not perfect. While the hints about the latter game are still not so encouraging and confusing. A conquest system tied to an overall campaign is an interesting model, one that I’m supporting and elaboriating from a few years already. But tying this conquest system to quick, instanced battles with game-y objectives just doesn’t sound as a smart idea. It’s like throwing the whole potential out of the window.

This “macro level” is based on the wrong parts of the game. The idea of a campaign should be something that slowly progresses, the “context” of the war.

From my point of view Mythic is playing too much with these different models and forgetting that the main objective is to offer shared, consolidated goals instead of spreading the players between multiple zones and styles. I wouln’t be surprised if the game fails because all the players are spread around and there’s little to no actual PvP activity. Leaving the great majority of the zones completely deserted.

What they are hinting here is a model that looks to fragmented and granular. The PvP should work as a set. It should comprise and bring the players together. Create shared objectives. Mythic is putting together too many PvP models at the same time, while it would be much more convenient and profitable to build up a coesive model with a few precise goals. Something unique instead of a patchwork of PvP styles that are badly joined together with purely functional purposes.

Too many plugs. They need to simplify a lot for the PvP model to work and be strong. Focus on less structures and define less, but more solid founding goals to achieve.

C&C The basic character system that Mythic is using is not a typical “class system.” They’re keeping some portions of the Warhammer universe and adopting others. “The career system operates along the concept that we want you to be able to choose an interesting start to your character’s progression, sort of complete the chapter of your character’s life, and then choose a new chapter,” says lead designer Steve Marvin. So they’re using a basic progression tree where you start out as either a Fighter or Adept (read “magic user”) and then, at an arbitrary stage, you may choose your next career step either in the same path as your original choice or in a direction that moves you into a different career.

In essence, a path straight through in the same discipline makes you what, in other games, is considered “pure.” Or if you like a more balanced, hybrid approach, you end up being what most think of as “multi-classed.” You’d think that this sort of thing would be a real challenge to balance, but Marvin isn’t worried. “It would be a real nightmare if we didn’t have this kind of encapsulation that gives control,” he says. “Because we split the Fighter from the Adept, we’re not trying to balance all the magic with all the weapon attacks… that helps us.”


Most surprising is the absence of levels, replaced by a career system similar to that of the tabletop game. You choose a career, then select certain elements of that career which you’ll attain once you have acquired enough XP. So improvements are gradual, rather than an enormous leap with each new level, and entirely in the hands of the player. A character learns four careers thoughtout the game, building a unique class of choosen elements.

A class system. No levels. Hmm…

There’s a lot of vapor in the eyes, I think. They play a lot with the terms but it seems that they are just recovering the system already designed for Imperator. That is the same in the original EQ2 and that was recently scrapped because it didn’t meet the approvation of the players.

You choose a class and then further specialize it. Branching classes. You start from a few options and then the system branches up in more possibilities. Nothing new, just different names for the stuff we already know.

No levels? We’ll see, there are still not enough details to understand the system. We know that you select a basic class, then you’ll move through three other specializations (the four careers total). There will be xp points and probably these will go to unblock gradually specific skills.

Basically is a branching classes system with levels disguised as achevement points. A remix without significant or even noticeable and justified improvements.

This while Mark Jacobs continues to be as fun as ever:

Any PvP flagging we may use, keep in mind that I actually created the PvP flag concept (and called it that) almost 20 years ago in my first MUD.

No, really.

And the new alliance race is the murloc *gurgle*

There’s a screenshot leaked from beta that is circulating right now. It shows a character selection screen and a warrior murloc fully modeled and equipped, it even has the might helmet adapted to the shape of the head of the murloc. The server names says “Exp_US_test”.

As a fake it is way too complex. I’m going to believe to this one. The E3 is near and I bet it’s where Blizzard will reveal the alliance eace. Enjoy your month+ anticipation ;)

From Q23:

A buddy of mine who worked at Blizzard described the planned WoW expansion E3 trailer an in an IM:

10:57:15 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: starts with a scene underwater
10:57:18 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: the dark murky depths
10:57:32 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: then a gnomish submarine sinks and crashes into teh ocean floor
10:57:44 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: a few murlocs go inside and find all the gnomes dead
10:57:57 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: but the “TV screens” are still playing
10:58:09 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: with some gnomes say, “Are you tehre? are you there? Hello?”
10:58:16 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: and then the murlos look all confused and one of them mimics it
10:58:34 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: the words first come out strange and bubbly
10:58:46 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: but then the others chimein and after a few more tries, it sounds like almost perfect gnomish!
10:58:50 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: fade to black
10:59:07 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: a few years later, there is a thriving murloc community built around the gnomish submarine
10:59:15 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: it looks like they are rebuilding it!!
10:59:30 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: then you see a crew of murlocs get in teh gnomish submarine
10:59:52 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: they are piloting it back to an Alliance port, surrounded by an army of swimmig murloc escorts
10:59:58 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: it loosk like an invasion!
11:00:04 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: the alliance comes out in force
11:00:09 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: tense moments
11:00:18 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: mages, knights, paladings, etc, ready to fight
11:00:34 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: and then teh hatch opensup, and a murloc pops out speaking perfect gnome
11:00:42 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: “We come in peace…and to return your ship!”
11:00:48 AM EXBLIZZDUDER: the Alliance looks stunned and we fade backout

Of course, I assumed he was just messing with me. HMMMMMMMMM….

P.S.
The 1 April is tomorrow. Maybe Blizzard wants to fool us. Maybe not.

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Geldon has finished Oblivion

Geldon is the weirdest guy on the internet. But beside this, he finished Oblivion. I think his post has an image that counts as a spoiler, so this is an excerpt that is still “safe”:

I pushed towards ending the main storyline in Elder Scrolls: Oblivion today. At level 35+, with ludicriously enchanted gear, my Agent character was long overdue to end it. I stuck with one character from start to end of a game for over 86 hours of play time. How about that? I guess I can stick with a single character after all.

Well, 86 hours sounds quite satisfying for an ambitious rpg like this. I love long games.

Since this post is short I’ll add some stuff I digged out:
– F1 to F4 work great as an alternative to “tab”. They bring up the UI at the specific tab you need
– From the game console type: set timescale xx – where “xx” stands for how many game minutes correspond to one real life minute. This is quite fun because if you set it to 1200 or more you can see day/night cycles at a super speed ;p

If you want to set the timescale permanently you have to save the game after you gave the command. You need to repeat this for every new game, if you want to set it as a default option you need a mod. The default of the game is 1 RL min = 30 Oblivion minutes. Which means that for every two minutes you have an hour and a whole day is equal to 48 real minutes. Consider that if you change the defaults even the fast travel option will factor the new timing.

Right now I’m using two simple mods. One is custom made and just changes the default timescale to 15. This slows down the game time by half as I felt the time going too fast for my likings and the night/day cycle way too fast. If you want to mod it yourself you need to get the editor, the setting is under the “gameplay” > “globals” > “timescale”. The other mod I’m using can be found here and slows down the skills by half, giving you more space to explore the world and do the side-quests without outlevelling everything too quickly and becoming too powerful. I use the 2x one.

See, I find amusing how we complained about slow treadmills and grindy stuff along these years, and now we create mods to slow everything down.

This is pretty fun also.

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Guessing numbers (and praying)

Again from Brad:

Obviously, I’m biased as all heck and very bullish about Vanguard, but my confidence level is very high. Let’s use conservative numbers. If we get most of the old school EQ players (say, 200k) and then we get just 5% of WoW’s 6 million (300k), that’s 500k subscribers, which is 45k more than EQ had when I left SOE and when EQ was top dog. And I think that’s conservative — I think we can do even better than that — with every 100 players WoW introduces to MMOGs, there must be at least 5 of them that are now or who will be looking for something more like Vanguard, so as they grow, our potential grows as well. And if Vanguard get’s 500k subscribers, we will be in fantastic shape financially from both Sigil and Microsoft’s perspective. Not that we’d mind more, of course :) Like I said, agree or disagree, but those are our conservative numbers (note I said more like 250k a year ago, but that was also when WoW was much smaller as well — like I said, everytime they grow the gamespace, they not only profit themselves, they also help every MMOG developer out).

He writes more about the progress on the beta here.

He even makes fun of me (btw, it’s not so hard to find Blizzard’s press releases).

I tend to sympathize with Utnayan (even if he lacks arguments). You cannot ask anymore the players to have “faith”. It doesn’t work anymore and we are much more jaded nowadays. Faith is something you have to earn.

As Matt Peckham said about Oblivion:

On the national cynic’s curve, we’ve all progressed mightily since 2001.

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Vanguard’s Senior Designer resigns – Part 2

EDIT- Since I noticed Joystiq linked here, these are the devs who quit we know about:

Lawrence “Myrlokar” Poe
Steve “Akkirus” Burke
John “Kendrick” Capozzi

These three being all senior designers.


Whenever I hear about some dev quitting Vanguard I go check Krones, he always knows more, and never deludes me:

Another epic Vanguard beta leak has recently surfaced and the news is unfortunate. Myrlokar is the moniker of Lawrence Poe who held a senior design position with Sigil for at least two years. Considering Vanguard is still in the crucial stages of beta development this is a tremendous loss for “the vision”. Lawrence Poe was assigned particularly to: mechanics, combat formulas, contest formulas, build the rulesets for the way spell effects scale throughout the levels, item point system, etc. Basically all the formulas and math on the design side of things — In addition to designing the spell/ability tool and the item tool.

He brings along with him his wife, who apprarently worked at Sigil as well as AI/pathing coder.

Quitting job is popular these days! Join the bandwagon!

On the FoH’s forum where the rumor leaked there’s now a post from Brad, flaming someone for spreading bad hype (which seems to be a norm, recently. Your beta testers suck).
Cutting out the flames:

Boats, player owned ships, pirates, ever increasing AI complexity, etc. are all going in right now or have been in. I demo’d player owned ships to testers and at Fanguards (read: the public) MONTHS ago — who pray tell are you to come here and post that they are likely going to be cut when they’re already in-game? Did I nerf your class or an item back in the early EQ days or something? Enough already.

Right now we’re adjusting wind speeds, tweaking travel time between Thestra and Qalia, fixing a few bugs when ships travel between server regions, etc. Tweaking and smashing bugs, not implementing core systems.

I’ve watched beta testers sail up and down the river outside of Tursh. I’ve seen the AI using water pathing to move an NPC driven boat (e.g. pirates) displayed to me by the programmer working on it. Under no circumstances are they going anywhere but into this game by launch (and not just by launch, but people will be sailing them between continents and through archipelagos in the next phase of beta).

Lastly, flying mounts are something we plan to do for sure after launch, but may possibly get in before launch, but no promises. I have been crystal clear about managing these expectations on our message boards and elsewhere. To what end would you lump in a possible feature with something we’ve committed to, like player owned ships?

You exhibit a fundamental misunderstanding here between implementing a system and then later tweaking it based on feedback from beta and completely starting from scratch and throwing out everything that existed before. It seems as if there is no in-between for you, that a system is either implemented perfectly the first time or if that fails, a completely new system must be created from scratch to replace the old. This is patently false.

The tweaks we are doing to balance, to make combat more proactive yet still reactive when it needs to be, the adjusting of formulas and experience curves, making sure casual content is viable, etc. are simply that: tweaks. And not all of them unexpected — much of the data we needed to make these more final decisions could only be gained through beta testing. MMOGs are so complex, with so many variables interacting with each other, that until you have at least hundreds of people using multiple systems at the same time, you cannot simulate much of the feedback you really need (despite attempts to use automation, bots, etc. to help with some of these issues). Others still require thousands and a full server/world/shard.

Minimal work is being re-done from scratch, but rather the bulk tweaks and formula adjustments. In fact, many of the changes are made in the database – they are data driven and don’t even require coding changes. The biggest loss of time has probably been the UI, which should be ahead of where it’s at, and does require re-work as opposed to tweaking. That is something we are pushing hard to get into the game before the next phase of beta. Like I said, the combat tweaks, or at least the next round of them, will go in in a few weeks and then we’ll see how they play out, and then make tweaks again if necessary: classic beta testing 101. Did it in EQ, and doing it in Vanguard.

We’ve always advocated long betas and are involved in one right now. EverQuest was in beta 9 months. We have better tools now and are more experienced, yet Vanguard is a more complex game. So I don’t know when we’ll launch exactly, but both Sigil and Microsoft are committed to shipping a solid game.

Will that mean that the game is ‘done’? It depends on how you look at it. To me, the beauty of MMOGs is that you can always add to them, both content and features. So from that standpoint an MMOG is never done. Rather, an MMOG should be launched when you feel you have enough content and features and balance to provide a compelling game to those players who are your target audience. Additionally, when planning an MMOG early on, now that we know they can be commercially viable for 5, maybe even 10 years, MMOG developers should also do as much as possible to architect their engine, tools, and content plans such that adding both features and content to the game post-launch is as easy as possible. We didn’t do the greatest job with EQ in this regard, because we had no idea it would last so many years. With Vanguard, however, we have features and content planned for at least 4-5 expansions already. And much of that planning was done at the high level very early on so when we architected our technology and tools, the coding was done keeping in mind not just what the game might be like, or look like, or play like at launch, but far after launch. Player controlled flying mounts is a great example. We already have them in from a technology standpoint – I can enter beta right now, mount a drake, and fly several km into the air and look down at our largest city with negligible fps impact. I can fly around, traverse the entire world, swoop up and down, etc.

Why won’t I commit to launching with player flying mounts then? Because such a feature requires more then the tech that is its foundation, but also justifies some cool game mechanics to accompany being able to fly about where you will, as well as some logical restrictions. And so that may be added post launch as a freebie or part of an expansion or any number of ways. So yes, under that scenario, we would be using subscription revenue to finish player driven flying mounts.

The key, however, is that we never promised player driven flying mounts as a component of Vanguard that would be available by launch. So an MMOG is not only done when there is enough content and features and balance to make a compelling and fun game for your target audience at launch, but also when you’ve done your best to manage expectations… have done your best to make sure the features you felt were truly necessary are indeed there at launch and that while you’ve talked about future features or content, that if you are unsure as to when they’ll realistically be ready, that you are up front with your future playerbase about those items well before launching the game.

Well, it’s long but it doesn’t really says anything worthwhile. What about telling why the game’s suffering all these devs leakage instead?

The third paragraph I quoted sounds like this:

“I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe.
Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.
I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Time to die.”