I’m biased against Turbine, so read keep that in mind.

Months ago I was guessing possible subscribers numbers for the next Turbine’s game based on the Middle Earth and I said that I was expecting around 200k. More recently I noticed that the interest in the community was rising, in particular not in a specific niche, but in a more transversal way, so I thought that they could be more successful than I expected. 300-400k maybe.

I posted a quote from EQ2’s Scott Hartsman that is interesting to see in the context of this upcoming game. He says that the constant rise in subscriptions is a privilege of “the king of the hill”, while all other “players” live with the same rules upside-down: retention demands revolution, while for the king of the hill growth demands stability. This is not only true, but also particular enlightening, even if apparently so simple, because it explains so much.

I was finding something in common between these two points above. I said that I’m noticing an unexpected enthusiasm toward LotRO, but the real point is that when you dig in the enthusiasm you find out that is not just unexpected, but also unexcused. The enthusiasm isn’t backed up by actual solid points that justify the interest. You can call it classic beta hype.

WoW created expectations in the market, in the last few years since its release the market wasn’t really providing interesting alternatives, so the demand for “new” grew. People like to anticipate stuff and a big mammoth like WoW, while still top-quality, failed to renew that part of interest that is only awaken when you offer new perspectives. The Burning Crusade expansion is overall very well executed, but it delivers more in a kind of horizontal growth. Surely it doesn’t go to explore new frontiers, the game is enclosed in its boundaries and rules. It’s still an excellent experience, but you know what to expect.

LotRO falls in this particular “momentum” and it becomes a double-edged blade. From a side the game is “familiar”, and this is positive. People appreciate familiarity. I remember a post from Vanguard’s UI designer ,who joined late in development, who justified WoW’s UI ripoff because she said it is important that you carry over and respect some expectations, some standards. When the mass market is reached (through WoW) it’s convenient that you don’t impose a whole new language but instead integrate it. Instead of re-training players, you continue on the same path. You try to deliver on the specific genre, following its rules. Players come with expectations, directly compare features between games even when the comparison makes little sense, they impose their own needs and habits. If you want to be considered by an already formed audience you need to talk them in their language.

From the other side that approach becomes negative: the “sameness”. The feeling of “already seen”. This isn’t a problem of the first approach, I wrote not long ago how the first ten minutes are the very best experience in every game. During those ten minutes everything is a discovery, the brand new look. Even if it’s a familiar game it still appears very shiny. Things change with the time. The “familiar but shiny” loses its glint, the drug tends to fade and you look at things more consciously, you ask yourself what is deserving your attention and dedication.

I said that the enthusiasm I’m noticing about this game is both unexpected and unexcused. Unexcused because when you scratch below the surface you don’t find worthwhile concrete points. The most interesting feature I’ve read about is the “title-driven carrot”, depending on some actions and triggers you may unblock special titles, and there are a whole lot of them. Well, it’s nice, but this is what I call a “gimmick”. It’s not really part of the game fabric, it doesn’t affect the game rules and the final point is that, while nice, you surely won’t decide to play this game because “it has titles”. It is actually the perfect example of feature that gets your interest right away, part of the exploration and first impact. But three/six months into the game, do you think you’ll still be excited about these titles? It’s all presentation. Good presentation puts you in a good mood and it is very important, but you won’t stay because of it.

Is that where all the enthusiasm is coming from? There’s the “same girlfriend with a new dress” that I explained, and then there’s Tolkien. From what I’m reading Tolkien is really the whole point, what gives that particular flavor that people are liking. So it doesn’t matter if the actual art direction is just “passable”, it’s still Tolkien and (it seems) feels enough like Tolkien to trigger that special flavor.

And we arrive at the last point. For perspective I remind that Codemaster (euro publisher) is expecting 1M subs JUST for the european market. Then read again the quote from Scott Hartsman, is LotRO going to be enough King of the Hill to see a progressive growth in subscribers along the months? Let’s say it will be successful, do you think that WoW is going to lose from 500 to 1M subs because of LotRO (beacause for sure it won’t tap a new market with just a license)? My idea is that there’s a period when players keep their former account and also go try another game. LotRO may pulg there. I expect a good numbers of WoW players to try this new game and even like it. Either they are bored of WoW and so canceled their accounts, or they are still subscribed. In the first case I seriously doubt that LotRO will be interesting for them in the longer-term. In the second case I expect players to keep accounts active on both games and this usually lasts for a while but sooner or later they’ll decide one or the other.

I expect LotRO to be a short-lived bubble even on the forums. I don’t see the game having some serious draw that is not that special glint derived from the “newness” and “being Tolkien”. MEO will draw a lot of attention, it could initiate an interesting process of “mass-market”, but I also believe that it will be a comet. Big burst and then very quick fade.

My prediction is that the game, while starting quite well, will enter “subscription retention mode” very soon. Like two months after release.

It’s known that gamers have ADD. Especially those who go after the “shiny”.

What I told you about SOE’s business practices and trends?

I saw this looking at other blogs feeds (Cuppycake and Krones). I guess Brad McQuaid pretended the price to raise in order to keep Vanguard vaguely profitable.

The price is now thirty bucks (in Europe add another $5 of taxes) and they even rebill you automatically with the higher fee (effective April 2, 2007).

Firstly they publicize Vanguard and the All-access pass as both part of a very convenient deal, then, I guess, they are successful but so successful to the point that they cannot keep all games and live teams alive with one reasonable monthly fee that has to be split thin.

So it’s now thirty bucks. Still cheap? Well, it’s almost what you would pay for a FULL brand new game with years of development behind it. And you pay that MONTHLY.

Prediction: this will break either EQ2 or Vanguard, as they are now forcing players to pick one side. As I anticipated, only one will survive.

Next step is obviously rising the single monthly fee. But they just cannot do that before the competition moves the first step ;p

They also gave NCSoft the perfect occasion for a winning stab. Release Dungeon Runners, Exteel and Tabula Rasa and launch their own version of an all-access pass with an accessible monthly fee. If they are going to miss this opportunity then they are just crazy. A victory handed on a silver plate. With their accessible games and variety of styles it even makes sense to play more than one mmorpg.

P.S.
Planetside monthly fee is also going up: $13 -> $15

The player-reported news on VE3D is worth a quote:

After more 3 years of continually dwindling subscriber numbers, corporate mismanagement, a botched expansion, the addition of in-game advertisements, and numerous unpopular gameplay changes, SOE in all their wisdom has decided to increase the subscription rate from $13 to $15, citing investments to improve the game’s support and infrastructure. Any long-time player knows the only support they have given is life-support. Barely keeping the game running is their idea of investing in it.

EDIT-
And another quote from Amber:

The short-sightedness of this approach is staggering. In a marketplace that Sony hasn’t come close to dominating for well over 5 years, they’re behaving like a monopoly with a captive player base.

This is about that “Top Secret” project that claims to give you the occasion of your life.

Hey, if I’d be a goon that would be the occasion of my life. Since I don’t have the opportunity to work on games following the standard path (as foreigner) this could be the only way to actually try!

“I’ve always loved the idea that someone, from their bedroom, reveals their passion and talent, then suddenly can have an absolutely stunning career explosion, becoming a famous Game Director with a pre-built fan base. We’re going to make it happen!” says David Perry who is a Game Director and Chief Creative Officer for Acclaim Games.

David Perry will be building the new online game from scratch and is offering members of the Acclaim player community a rare opportunity to help him develop this video game in a collaborative effort with some of the industry’s best talent. “We will bring in some surprise guests along the way to inspire and mentor the contributors,” says Perry.

One lucky winner who shines the most during the development process will be given the top prize. “This is the only chance I know of to jumpstart a directorship career in the video game industry,” continues Perry. “Everyone wins. They get to learn how to make professional games, and if they get anything in, they get a real professional credit on their resume.” Perry finishes, “But, if they win, well then they get their life changed.”

Interestingly, applicants don’t need any prior game development experience. In fact, Perry refuses to look at resumes. “We only care about the pure, focused, passionate talent they show up with,” he says.

Hey, it IS me. It’s about MMO. It’s about bedroom game design. It’s about offering a lifetime occasion. It’s about an opportunity for those who cannot have one. There isn’t anyone else in the world who could make a better target!

But I’m not so naive and my first reaction was the same of Stephen Zepp on the F13 thread: a laugh.

I’m mildly curious about how they are going to attempt this. I’m one of those who like to plunge in the community for ideas and feedback, I’m the one who believes that it’s an indispensable part of making games. But at the same time you just cannot let the players, as a vague group, build a game. And what game by the way?

You cannot design “on the air”, you always need a context. A project must have well outlined goals and purposes, then you can start to gather ideas about a specific system or possible alternatives. The problem working with “the community” is that there’s no synthesis. It’s pure chaos and without someone directing the process and taking decisions then it’s all absolutely useless and superfluous.

Without a set context the ideas would be contradictory and conflicting. Building a game is about having a coherent Vision. Letting a whole community build a game instead equals to a “patchwork”. Even assuming the execution is exceptional, you still have a castle of cards lacking solid foundation, principles and goals.

And would be Dave Perry(™) the director that is supposed to make all this happen? Who will tell good ideas from bad ideas? Who will make the calls? Who will evaluate the community work? Since Lum was too modest to brag directly, I’ll quote what he linked, last year’s Austin rant where he comments one of Dave Perry’s ideas, this wonderfully creative guy:

As an example of that last bit, Jennings brought up a new project by Dave Perry and Acclaim that will include in-game classified ads on the screen. They can be turned off, but players won’t level up as quickly if they choose to play without them, a point that drew a chorus of boos from the assembled audience. He also suggested facetiously embracing a “wonderland of consumerism,” with Coca-Cola-sponsored magic swords, Kobalds corpses that hold Skittles, and a Jet Blue dragon to fly players around.

“When you totally disrespect your consumers like that, I can assure you of one thing: Your project will fail,” Jennings said. “And deservedly so.”

Jennings ended his rant to a hearty round of applause

The firsts, vague details about the already hyped, upcoming Bioware MMO are coming out from the first interview they released about the project.

As a first comment I’ll copy what Haemish said: “I see a whole lot of naivete in that interview”.

Summary:

Gordon Walton, co-studio director, BioWare Austin: We announced the game around March, but we’d really started on it in the beginning of December 2005.

James Ohlen, creative director, BioWare Austin: We’ve got a lot designed — we’ve got the GDD [game design document] done, we’ve finished more than three quarters of the detail design documents. We’ve got a couple prototypes up.

And we can talk about the high-level goals: We basically want to bring what BioWare’s famous for to the online space, and one of the things BioWare’s famous for is storytelling … and it’s something that pretty well doesn’t exist in the online space right now. Most “storytelling” in MMORPGs is just FedEx quests — you know, you have to go get some eggs — and it’s presented in a format that’s just a bunch of text thrown at you in paragraph for … and that’s not so exciting. We want to bring a level of storytelling that’s equal to the single-player box games that BioWare has done.

JO: You can’t stop the world from being destroyed by [Sauron], but you can do a lot of things that are personal to your character. You change how your character evolves over the game, the player’s personal story — and a player’s personal story can be quite epic. It can involve parts of the world that, while they’re epic, exciting, and interesting, don’t change the landscape of the entire world for everyone else.

Rich Vogel, co-studio director of product development: One thing we don’t want to do is NPC Pez dispensers, as I call them — go over there, dispense a quest, and then go “vacuum-clean” a zone. We want to make sure you listen to NPCs, because choices matter. And that’s really important.

JO: and they can still — especially when you use things like instances — go on a quest that involves killing an ancient huge red dragon.

JO: In WOW, you get XP when you finish a quest, but the weighting on that is pretty low; there’s not much benefit to doing that over finding the perfect monster to grind and kill. If those quest experience points were a little higher, it would make a lot more sense to go along with the story.

GFW: How many of your key staffers migrated from SOE [which also has a studio in Austin]?

GW: I don’t know that we have a count. Some from SOE, some from BioWare Edmonton, some from other companies completely. It’s not like we had to go knocking. Experienced people want to work on a product that can be successful.

We probably have the most experienced team in the business, as far as building MMORPGs.

JO: we don’t want players to be stuck grinding through the same content over and over again.

RV: is our game going to be a simulation? No. Our game is an entertainment experience.

RV: it’s very important to have directed content … especially if you want to get to a mainstream audience.

JO: If we’re going to create immersive, epic stories that are believable, that really goes against having a simulation-type world.

RV: The key points that we’re gonna do that no one’s done before in an MMOG are bring story, character, and emotion to it. Decisions matter, and NPCs aren’t pez dispensers, and you’re not in a grind.

JO: One of the things we want to do is create more story content than in any other BioWare game before, and we started a writing team earlier than in any other BioWare project — more than twice as big, nine total. The reason is that the world is huge and has tons of paths and options.

So they found the magic recipe for the Endless Stream of Quality Content and No Grind that no one was able to find till today: hire nine writers.

And when it was asked how to “bring the story, character and emotion” the answer is: instancing.

If there’s one thing that irks me is when people disown what they have done in the past (SWG). You know, the more I hear them talk and the more I think that the “dinosaurs” Raph Koster often talks about are those two guys. Rick Vogel and Gordon Walton.

They come from a systemic game, it fails and now they are all for the directed gameplay “because you cannot be successful without”. And because of the WoW “me too” syndrome.

They are just running around aimlessly, glad that they now have “Bioware” printed in their resumes.

It’s not like we had to go knocking. Experienced people want to work on a product that can be successful.

Experienced people are looking for the Bioware name. Between these people are Rich Vogel and Gordon Walton.

For these “experienced people” what matters is their resume. And the fact that now there’s “Bioware” printed there. The rest? Irrelevant. They are leeches.

By the way. I also wrote a bunch of design notes in the past about how to bring “story, character and emotion” (part 1 – part 2). With the difference that I explained *concretely* how to achieve that. It’s there and you can agree or disagree with it. And surely wouldn’t be the only thing to make a game significantly different to be INDISPENSABLE and EXCUSED in the market. Because if no one feels the need for another cookie-cutter game (beside those “experienced people” who care only about a new voice on their resumes) then it shouldn’t be done.

One thing is an excuse to get a job. One thing is working because you believe in what you are doing. Because you have something to say.

But of course they would say that they HAVE innovative and interesting ideas, but, of course again, they cannot disclose them JUST YET. All those other MMO companies out there are just waiting the occasion to steal all their incredible, brilliant ideas. Okay. Sure. How much time do you want? One year? Two? Three? More? Whatever. Because I’m sure that no matter how much time we will wait, at the end there won’t be absolutely anything new behind the curtain.

Maybe a brick: in the form of instancing, nine writers and, maybe, branching quests (that will effectively double the time of content production).

In the meantime I really have one question. Honest. I hope someone will ask them in an interview in the future. The question is: Why a MMO?

Wait…

Why a MMO?

Better :)

“Because I want it on my resume” is NOT an answer.

If this project deserves some attention it is because, as I wrote on the forums, there’s Ubiq working on the combat system, and lately he seems more enlightened than usual.

If Codemaster were (or going to be) relevant to the mmorpg space, I would write about this (Lum did), but they don’t.

Codemasters Online Gaming today announces ‘PlayPLUS’, a revolutionary subscription system for the hugely anticipated MMORPG ArchLord™. The PlayPLUS system will enable players to purchase packages that include both game time and in-game bonus credits. Credits will be redeemable against in-game items and benefits, such as experience bonuses, teleportation spells, health boosts and many other desirable enhancements.

Enjoy your way out of this industry. Noone is going to miss you.

I would also laugh so heartily if they could manage to convince Turbine to use that system on the soon to be failure MEO.

Shame on you, Sunsword.

I was reading a rant linked by Jeff Freeman and written by Dan Rubenfield (who apparently has a long experience in the mmorpg industry and recently left SOE in search of something different). I liked it quite a bit. I agree on most of those premises.

Dream games. All developers and designers have them. In fact, everyone has them.

But we never make them. We all want to but don’t have the time or the resources.

So all designers have dream games. We bandy them around but tend not to talk to them while employed as there’s always a fear of “losing your idea” to your parent company.

Well, I’m not sure that I understand this. I would love to “lose my ideas” to make them possible, myself. In fact I expose them often when I write. So I see that trend described as really counterproductive. Why you should hide your ideas when employed? And what’s the work about then?

See ideas becoming real should be the most rewarding experience ever. The “parent company” is supposed to valorize the people who work within and let them express at their very best. Put them in the condition to do so. If instead the devs shy away it means that something is going really wrong.

Making a mmorpg is about harmonious teamwork. You dedicate yourself to the game and everyone contributes with what he does best. Competition inside the same team is a bad thing. But this is a digression.

Currently nobody’s making anything new for MMO development. There’s a smattering of small developers pushing the envelope but the majority of the big publishers out there (Except Blizzard) isn’t doing shit.

There’s a palpable sense of fear and terror amongst mmo developers right now. They’re scared shitless of WOW. They see it, believe it’s insurmountable, tuck their tails and go the opposite direction.

What does that mean?

It means you’re going to have company after company fucking around with smalltime, smallscale free products. Myspace Killers, Habbo Killers, Runescape Killers, you name it.

It’s going to be reactive, marketing driven, and for the most part, failure after failure.

It’s going to be company after company saying things like “We’d like to focus on the Casual market instead of the hardcore”.

Dan considers the “casual market” as a “null” one, since it is made by non-gamers who will never really cross the line to become gamers and true supporters of this industry:

(about casual gamers)
We should figure out how to craft and sell games to the people who legitimize us before dorking around with people who don’t buy or enjoy our products.

Continuing on the same rant:

Everyone looks at MMO development as “Competing” with WOW. And nobody wants to do it. They’d rather scrabble for the detritus that falls from their pockets. They’d rather go for spillover and for some fucked up reason, focus on the Non-Gaming market.

And once again, I ask “What The Fuck?”. We haven’t figured out how to reliably create and sell games to the people who buy games and we’re fucking around trying to sell games to people who don’t even play games?

We’re once again not using the strength of the medium, once again not asking the questions that need to be asked. The people who hold the purse strings aren’t interested. They’ve retreated into their developmental shells in an attempt to go for the “untapped potential” market.

The thing is, we’ve seen this happen over and over historically. If you single track your product lines like this you’re going to end up fucked. You’re might see some short term success but long term you’re going to end up in very bad financial shape.

We’re not in a static environment of game players, game developers, game sales, game platforms. There’s an ever evolving sense of tastes and ever shifting marketplace. Our marketing efforts and development dollars tend to use history as the basis for choices. Unfortunately this is only part of the equation.

We should be looking historically as well as looking forward for future trends and desires.

Like I do, he hopes for games that expand their sighting, new approaches, different paradigms. The current rules in the market are just consolidated and conventional, but not absolute.

So the market is incredibly malleable. It can be shaped. This is the correct perspective to see it. Hystorical rules are just consequences of what is being made. Different things being made would lead to a different types of market and completely different influences for future products.

It is important to understand the market, but not react to it passively.

The part where I don’t agree with Dan is where he is over with the analysis and proposes an alternative:

Everyone’s piling into that rowboat because we’ve convinced ourselves that WOW is insurmountable.

And to a degree we’re right. WOW is not something you can ever compete with. So DON’T.

I will bold this yet again.

STOP TRYING TO MAKE THAT SAME FUCKING GAME.

Raph made a comment a few years back that WOW was going to set our industry back 10 years. It wasn’t meant as a derogatory statement about WOW but instead about the reactive, bullshit nature of us.

And you know what? He was right about that too.

From there he starts to pitch his own game idea that I want comment (but it’s good enough).

I don’t agree with him even if I agree with all the other premises because I see things from a different perspective.

What I strongly believe is quite simple: it is possible to make new and different games IN the “fantasy genre”.

From a side Dan proposes to start from a different game concept, from the other to push a different pricing model that relies heavily on RMT.

I heartily *hate* the second part for reasons I won’t explain again (in short: real money should stay OUT of the game, it doesn’t belong there), while I see the first as not the obligatory solution.

I’m between those who really dreams and wants completely new and different games. Focusing on the immersion, with a true ongoing, dedicated, passionate development to shape and nourish a *world*, and not bouncing devs and resources between a bunch of mediocre projects or sequels that won’t leave any sign and will be obsolete and forgotten after a few months or years. Ambitions and myths. Not consumer society.

But I also believe that the “fantasy genre” is far from being just WoW. Or pinpointed by it. Different games are possible. And not only possible: successful. And the same for different genres. I would love to design a Space Opera mmorpg, or a steampunk based world (think to Myazaki’s Nausicaa), but you aren’t forced to abandon a genre because you blindly believe that nothing else is possible within it.

I just refuse to believe that WoW has now the monopoly of the fantasy genre. And I refuse to accept that you are now forced to make games into different genres if you want to survive.

Hell, even the same Warcraft could be made into completely different games.