Eve-Online – The other way of making games

After the server statistics I pasted below I think it’s useful to take another, completely different example:

Does it look different? Eve-Online has seen a constant, regular growth of subscriptions from the release of its first expansion till today. The launch of CoH, WoW and other games didn’t affect it in the slightest.

What I find interesting and amusing is how this game is able to shatter all the commonplaces I use to hear. For example the commonplace that a “bad launch” is a disaster that cannot be recovered for a mmorpg. We have examples like Anarchy Online, Shadowbane and… Eve-Online. Often the poor results of the first two games are “excused” and ascribed to just the bad launch, not the game. Well, Eve-Online had one AWFUL launch following months of desperate beta phases. I won’t go in the details but I followed this game closely and I was in the beta since the August of the previous year (the game was released in May). I had high expectations about it and as I joined I was positively impressed. Then things started to go wrong all around. The devs decided to basically rewrite everything, from the netcode and the server backbone to the whole UI (which was redone completely 5-6 times just in the beta). From the second phase in September to the third only a week or two were supposed to pass. Instead the game was stuck for more than a month (with a release planned for early December) and when we finally were able to log in again the status was horrible at best. Nothing was working, the lag was massive and the game was simply unplayable. But aside these “details” the point was that the game was going downhill and the situation just became worst as the time passed and I was between those believing that the game was just going to fail at that point.

The launch went badly. The beta was used like a huge public trial version and only a few players decided that the game was worth something. One day before release the server were still badly lagged and most of the game just didn’t work or had the majority of the features planned removed and forgotten.

It couldn’t have gone worst than that. In particular if you add that the game had relevant problems with the distribution and never reached the shops in NA.

If we follow the commonplace at this point, it’s obvious how this game would be doomed. It would have been impossible to get players back if the commonplace was correct and valid as it was for AO and Shadowbane. In particular if we consider how the setting of the game is way less popular. Shadowbane seems to have fallen below 20k of subscriptions despite its supposed appeal and genre, Anarchy Online about the same and they are probably counting the free accounts. Both games don’t have much to say anymore. And Eve?

These are interesting times we live in. EVE now has more than 64 thousand subscribers, we are releasing more content faster and we have at least 5 expansions worth of features and content just waiting to be implemented.

Not bad for a sci-fi game where you cannot even see and move your avatar and where the whole gameplay is mostly about spreadsheets and slow paced interactions that bore to tears 99% of the players giving it a try.

How this could have happened? It’s simple, the subscriptions depend on the unique qualities of a game. Eve-Online has those unique qualities and was able to break completely the awful trends in both the development and game mechanics. You don’t hear from them planning for new games like Mythic, SOE, Wolfpack and everyone else is doing. Their whole team is completely focused on *this* game. All their resources, talent and work is going into a precise direction. They *believe* in the game and kept believing into it from day one when everything seemed to go wrong. Instead of trying to bail off they just kept working harder and now they see the result of that work and that attitude. Guess what? Now they don’t need to hype new games and promise they learnt from their mistakes. Because the fact they learnt is blatantly obvious from the quality that the game reached.

This is probably the best “Virtual World” we have out there. It’s not just a polished combat simulation like every other game out there. The players have an impact on the world. The PvP model is open and interesting and there’s a direct interaction with the environment. The players aren’t figures moving on a fixed background and growing e-peens. Instead they ARE the game, affect the game and create stories and dynamic situations. Give this a look. Recently CCP added the possibility to conquer and control entire star systems and build space stations. This doesn’t happen in a fucking private instance where noone can enter. This happens right in the world that everyone shares. That same world that just a few days ago reached more than 13k characters logged in at the same time.

The development follows this attitude. They know that in order to keep a “Virtual World” alive they cannot work on optional expansions. A “Virual World” is a cohesive effort, you cannot plan it as retared optional patches. In fact this is exactly what they are doing. They develop expansion but they are included in the monthly fee and released to everyone.

What I wrote not long ago is still valid and confirmed by the developers themselves. They didn’t paint themselves in a corner chasing that stupid model of the mudflation to excuse the production of more content. They don’t need that because a self-consistent Virtual World already implicitly holds a depth and a potential that are just endless. Thinking about sequels or exansions is simply ridiculous because you will already have so many ideas of cool new features to implement and integrate with the game. And you don’t have pass time to figure out what to invent next because your shoulder e-peens cannot become bigger than that.

we are releasing more content faster and we have at least 5 expansions worth of features and content just waiting to be implemented.

You might not have noticed a lot, but this is understandable. Small gradual improvements over a long period of time tend not to register and most of what we did was in preparation for KALI. Sounds strange doesn’t it?

KALI is much more than “more features”. KALI is a brand new code branch. Remember EXODUS? Remember the performance increases that client had compared to the old Castor client? That was because EXODUS was a new code branch where we could start large overhauls and even rewrites to major systems.

The main thing I didn’t convey in the previous blog was that KALI is so much more than just new features. It includes A LOT of improvements, performance increases and system rewrites.

They don’t sit on their asses and do not postpone the development of new features to different projects. They don’t need to plan sequels to realize the potential of their ideas and they demonstrated more than once how every part of the game can be expanded and rewritten in a RADICAL level. Constantly trying to push the potential of the game instead of sit back and surrender to the flaws. Or, even worst, keeping trying to work around them, gliding on the surface.

So let’s speak of those retarded common places that are so diffused. Let’s speak of horrible launches, let’s speak of the lack of retail boxes on the shops, let’s speak of the need to plan sequels in order to get new subscribers, let’s speak of product lifecycles.

I love how this game and this company are shattering every single one of these stupid commonplaces. Keep going and good work.

P.S.
Since I was remembering the old times… How much I hated “Campion”, that stupid producer that I’m sure was responsible for more than one disaster in a way or another. I passed all the time in the beta arguing with him and receiving back retarded answers. How happy I was when he finally left CCP a few months after the launch (before they went independent and the game started to see the positive trend). And how happy I am NOW that I read that he also had to leave Turbine and MEO after having joined the last year as the producer (read on Gamerifts).

Keep that guy away from your games.

Guild Wars and Eve-Online subscribers situation

Just to archive semi-old data for my “subscriptions” category.

About the situation of Guild Wars, a post from SirBruce:

NCsoft has announced sales figures for Guild Wars. The game sold 650,000 copies in the US and Europe, but only 27,000 in Korea. Total sales are about US$27.5m versus US$50m forecast.

Arenanet’s operate costs are about US$9m/year. Guild Wars itself cost ~US$16m, including marketing costs. If NCSoft is committed to the product, they’re going to have to release 1.5 – 2 expansions a year and hope they sell consistently to keep the game profitable.


Since NCsoft is also the publisher, it’s all theirs, minus COGS of course, but how much does A.Net get? That’s the real question. If it’s a set percentage, then they might not be, as a “division”, profitable. If NCSoft decides to operate it at a “loss”, that’s fine, so long as the company is making money overall.

But you’d better believe they need to do expansions within three years, because you left out development costs. Box sales have recouped the games costs and covered A.Net for one year, but each year it’s going to cost about $9M a year to operate. So you have to generate at least that much in box sales every year through expansions, plus however much it costs to actually produce that expansion — probably not as much as the whole game itself, but still, not chump change. And you have, of course, opportunity cost to consider — sure, maybe GW is making money, but is it really the best use of NCSoft’s money, or could they make more with a traditional subscription-based game?

Now, 1-2 GW expansion per year should be okay, even if only half the people who bought the first box buy the second one, but you don’t want that number to keep declining or you’ll be in trouble really quick. Also, A.Net had already missed its first “window” for an expansion; they won’t have one until next year. So it remains to be seen if they are even CAPABLE of delivering on schedule.

More data about the situation in Korea at Terra Nova.

Someone also doubted od the possible failure since the 26-27k reported is about the licences sold to PC-bangs and not actual subscription numbers. It seems that Lineage 1 has just around 19k of those licences active. Which would transform the apparent complete failure of the game into a huge success.

The numbers on Terra Nova contradict this hypothesis, though. So it’s hard to understand what is going on.


About Eve-Online the situation is more clear. CCP is organizing to try to push the game in the eastern market as well but for now there are just normal subscriptions following a positive, always growing trend. Which is the best a mmorpg could aspire to and that rewards one of the most original and less derivative products out there.

11.7.2005 – New Online Record

Yesterday, Sunday, you set a new online player record when 12.895 of you were playing at the same time! No reports of lag were reported, the ‘cold war edition’ seems to have yet again lessened the server load.

More details about the actual subscription numbers from a rather recent post on the forums:

1. How many suscribers does EVE currently have?

I think we just went past 60.000 paying subscribers the other day. That means an active account which is being paid for and is the industry standard for “subscriber”.

World of Warcraft causes 3rd World War

There’s a fancy Press Release.

So the game reaches two million of paying subscribers. The rumor was already floating around and even SirBruce updated his charts accordingly before the press release.

You know what? Blizzard is done. Done. They can leave completely the game as it is, without a patch for years and they’ll still cash a fuckload of money. They triggered an out-of-scale process that can be exploited without any commitment. They are in a position that will prevent them to pay for their mistakes and it’s exactly the point where something breaks. Now they can fuck the game just for fun and watch the reaction amusedly. Development-wise they are done.

You say that some parts of the game are broken? HA! Two million subscribers. Rimshot.

This game is going to break China. Phenomena like the “Leroy video” demonstated how this game is becoming more than a game and nearer to a cultural symbol outside the boundaries of the game itself. I really don’t know how China will react to this but I’m starting to believe that the third World War will be triggered by a videogame.

Fun times.

FFXI – Fifth Vana’diel Census

I didn’t expect it this year, but Squaresoft released the fifth detailed report (the second released to the american public) as they did a year ago.

The first thing jumping to the eye is that they removed completely the numbers from the charts. While the main focus of the report of the previous year was to flaunt the great success that the game was having, this year the approach is way more modest and quiet. As if the comeback campaign wasn’t enough of a demonstration, it’s rather obvious that the numbers of the game do not shine anymore as for the past year. Even FFXI is suffering the release of better games along with a “flat development” that isn’t really improving or addressing the problems of the game.

Another confirmation of this trend comes from the second page:

Based on data compiled at the end of March 2005, we conducted research on the main job levels of over 1,550,000 characters belonging to over 500,000 registered users.

To begin with, these 500.000 registered users aren’t specified as active. Secondly, from the last news we had in September I was estimating around 600k of active subscriptions or more. 550k confirmed for sure.

So it’s now fair to assume that the game is stalling and starting to see a slight decline.

To notice the number of level 1 characters between the total pool of 1.5M, rises from the 34% of the last year to 41% – Mules for the win!

And the dynamics of the power curve:
-3.93% in the 2-10 level range (38.94%)
-6.16% in the 11-20 level range (16.91%)
-1.06% in the 21-30 leve range (8.74%)
+1.33% in the 31-40 level range (6.02%)
+1.20% in the 41-50 level range (5.18%)
+1.86% in the 51-60 level range (7.47%)
+1.70% in the 61-70 level range (7.44%)
+5.33% in the 71-75 level range (9.30%)

Little kids are growing…

The parsed official commentary:

Excluding level 1 storage characters, characters up to level 20 comprise around 55% of the total population. Compared to last year, there has been a 1% increase in the number of level 30 characters, which can be attributed to the effect of level-restricted areas in the Chains of Promathia, and also to players attempting to quest for extra jobs. The number of characters of level 50 and above has increased dramatically to 24% from 15% last year, while characters of level 71 and above have increased by almost 5% to 9% this year.

The detailed power curve is also interesting to compare to the one of other games:


The second one is from World of Warcraft.

NCSoft Releases Q1 2005 Results

From a thread opened by SirBruce on Grimwell. The updated subscription numbers from NCSoft games, the initial Guild Wars numbers and some other interesting comments:

This is for the quarter January – March 2005. Hilights:

In 1Q, 2005, the total sales were down 4% QoQ to 60.4 billion won and operating profit was 21.3 billion won, down 1% QoQ.

Subscriber counts:
Lineage
1,994,693 (down from 2,085,385)
7,623 in US (down from 7,634)

Lineage II
2,107,348 (up from 2,065,187)
65,644 in US (up from 61,835)

City of Heroes
140,481 (up from 124,435)
US is 128,280; Europe is 12,201

5. Progress in Guild Wars
– Guild Wars;
Guild Wars was commercialized both in U.S & Europe on April 28th.
Within 1 week over 250,000 accounts are activated in U.S and Europe, which we believe is a quite solid start. Based on the initial sell through and very positive response and reviews from the gamers, we believe we can comfortably beat our initial Guild Wars sales target.
On the same date, in Korea, Open beta was started. Within 1 week, around 500,000 accounts were created, and concurrent users are around 30,000.
The number of accounts created within 1 week exceeds that of Lineage II during the same period of time.

NC soft believes new game launched like Guild Wars should generate sales growth every quarter.

http://www.ncsoft.net/eng/nccompany/ir_data_report01.asp


Net income (after taxes) was actually 21%.

As strong as those numbers may seem at first, these were actually well below analyst projections; the same was true of last quarter. NC Interactive (US) continues to lose money, and NC Europe is still taking a lot of investment capital to get started. WoW has been strong competition in Korea and China, and Guild Wars concurrent users in Korea is pretty low, as are its gamemetrics rankings in the cafes. NCSoft disputes the rankings and says it is getting more play that that, but clearly the title will have to do a lot better to meet expectations.

Tabula Rasa was delayed and NCSoft is now banking a lot of its hopes on both it and a fantasy title called “Aion” coming out next year. This is in addition to what they hope is strong sales for Auto Assault and City of Villians. Also coming out next year are Alterlife and Troopers, a mech-type game of some sort.

Also, the Korean baang market is changing, with MMOG games in decline and more and more “casual” games being played. NCSoft is planning on launching their own casual game package but if the trend continues this could be bad news, since so much of NCSoft’s business is derived from Lineage 1 and 2. Add to that that casual games don’t provide the montly revenue that MMOGs do, and that Guild Wars doesn’t either, and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding NCSoft’s financial future. It’s not that they are going to collapse or anything; however they could find themselves overextended.

So Fat

Believe it or not but World of Warcraft has 750.000 active subscribers solely on the NA servers. Or at least it reached that number at some point.

This improvement was notably driven by a reduction in costs, a one-time cost due to strengthened capitalization criteria of internal development costs adopted in fourth quarter 2003, combined with the launch of highly successful titles, including World of Warcraft (Blizzard Entertainment). World of Warcraft, released in late November 2004 in North America, became the regionâ

Got numbers?

Ethic spotted World of Warcraft‘s numbers:

In less than three months, it had already sold over 800,000 copies in North America. With a subscriber base of more than 750,000 players and peak concurrency of over 250,000 users, World of Warcraft is now the biggest online game in North America.

[…]

On January 18, 2005, World of Warcraft released in Korea, and in just one day had achieved peak concurrency of over 100,000 players.

[…]

Most recently, the game launched in Europe on February 11, 2005, to even greater success than in North America. After just its first weekend, Europe had already hit peak concurrency of over 180,000 players.

Hey Brucie, time to update the charts. And, yes. I was right.

Now lets see how much those numbers will sink in the next months. Because that’s what will happen, even if slowly.

(despite it’s still selling like bread)

I paste here an excerpt from Dave Rickey:

To explain how I get the 440K-550K number, what Iâ