Anime Decadence

A week or so ago I decided to revisit a Japanese anime that I loved when I was a kid: Saint Seiya.

The rewatch has been a surprising experience because the anime not only is still very fun, but the art style can still be amazing today. I went digging for some volumes of the manga, and this is one of those RARE cases where the adaptation (the manga comes first) is way, way better than the original. The anime does the exact contrary of what typical adaptations usually do (that is, downscaled, simplified versions). For example you’d expect the armor complexity to be simplified for the anime, compared to the manga. It’s the opposite, the anime armors have been redesigned and are way more beautiful and complex than they are in the manga. The same for the story, where in the manga some scene can be thrown away in a handful of pages, in the anime it’s much better developed, with inspired direction, great use of music, much sharpened tension and lofty drama. It’s no wonder that this series was popular all over the world. It’s plain obvious that the team behind it had many talented people.

In fact, this anime is so great that I began seriously wondering WHAT THE FUCK happened to Japanese animation in recent times.

Look at this. Here’s a screenshot from something done in 1987. Almost 30 years passed, and this is a common television series, not a movie or an OAV:

And now look at how it becomes in a movie from 2005:

ARGH! WHAT HAPPENED?! Twenty years and everything’s gone to shit.

I’m pointing at this because I see more of an overall, pervasive trend, instead of a single case. There’s something beautiful in how the old anime were drawn, the medium itself and the physicality of it, those ink lines that are never uniform but more coarse, with a varying thickness. More organic to the image. Colors and light more natural compared to brightened, flashy ones and the sharp cut lines of modern animation. That first shot from 1987 looks as beautiful today as it did at the time. It doesn’t become obsolete.

Of course I’m aware there’s plenty of good stuff today, amazingly drawn, colored and animated, but I also see the pervasive trend that is widespread around the most common, commercial series, and that’s the bad part. Saint Seiya WAS a common, commercial and popular series. There’s something in how anime were made in those past years that makes every shot so beautiful and that instead looks plain ugly and flat in modern animation. As if all life and soul have been sucked away.

See this other example from a more recent Saint Seiya series (or this other one):

And compare to this:

Or even compare this and this. They seem from a completely different source, but only two moments just a few episodes apart. Yet, the second one, even if displaying a much lower quality, retains the charm of those bold lines. A charm that is completely gone from modern anime. What I mean is that it’s not just a matter of quality and detail, but of the actual texture, the physicality of the work itself, the tools used. You can take any anime from the eighties and they all have that special something, a beauty that is timeless and unsurpassed.

Of course there’s more to this discussion. It’s about technology and art, and it is common across the media. It applies to anime as it applies to cinema. The film grain of some old black and white Super-8 Kodak film gone out of production just can’t be achieved now. The secret is that movies can be better than life. Reach for an ideal dimension that is more. The medium itself, the process, has a unique beauty to it. Its own soul and unique aesthetic. Modern technology achieves higher fidelity and realism, but it also loses something in the process. Realism can be a value, but it does not have to be. Modern processes replace obsolete ones.

Something invaluable is lost. Things get better but there’s always a loss. A beauty irreplaceable, but forgotten.

(Since I’m taking screenshots as I watch, you can “manually” browse them. Currently they start from http://cesspit.net/misc/anime/seiya03.jpg and they go up to 39.)

Updating All The Things – 2

Since the provider moved to a new Linux distribution, last year, I had to work to unfuck the site. It was using an old version of Drupal that was also modified by me, updating to newer versions has never been possible because it meant losing a lot of the custom features I needed. So all the work was about making that old piece of software run anyway despite a rising number of incompatibilities and problems everywhere (can’t expect things to run smoothly when you are using server software that is almost nine years old).

I actually succeeded, in the last few months the site was up as it always was, but it was kind of annoying keeping it that way since every time there was some database reboot I had to manually update certain things to make it run again. So every few hours I had to check to make sure the site was alive.

Now I finally completed the process. Both my sites (this and loopingworld.com) are now on WordPress and no more running on ancient software (still, my nine years old engine runs several times faster than this up-to-date WordPress despite LOTS more database queries and overall more complexity, don’t ask me why). The links should be preserved, so old links should work and point to the proper corresponding wordpress entry. The database was ported over, but of course not perfectly. I think categories were turned into tags and there might be more weirdness.

Locally I also keep a working copy of the old site, but it will stay hidden for the public. At least I don’t need to kick it alive once a day as I had to do lately.

Maybe I’ll try to de-uglify the theme at some point (I eventually did, and what you see is how the site will look for now).

Kalgan has sense of humor

Player: Please, please, please release a Season 4 Arena and don’t introduce ANY new gear.

Then I think you will have a VERY good indication how popular the Arena is on its own merits.

Kalgan: About as popular as a Sunwell without any loot in it?

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WoW still growing?

Raph does SirBruce and found another investor presentation from Vivendi.

Or maybe not. In fact it the same I already commented, but I was somewhat fooled and went analyzing again the whole thing.

Here is some extrapolated data/best guesses I taken out from the graph, comparing it with the other official sources.

March 05 – 1.4 western [graph] – 550 eu – 850 na [March 17 press release, 500k eu – 800k us]
June 05 – 1.8 (+4) western [graph] – 850 (+3) eu – 950 na (+1)
September 05 – 2 (+2) western (+2) [graph] – 900 eu (+0.5) – 1.1 na (+1.5) [August 30 press release, 1M us]
December 05 – 2.4 (+4) western [graph] – 950 (+0.5) eu 1.4 na (+3)
March 06 – 2.7 (+3) western [graph] – 1.1 (+1.5) eu – 1.6 na (+2) [January 19 press release, 1M eu]

March 05 to 06 – (+1.3M) western – (+ 550) eu – (+750) us
March 05 to 06 – (+4M?) eastern
March 05 to 06 – (+5M) worldwide

However the graph seems a bit imprecise. If we follow the progress of the official press releases this is what we have:

March 17: 1.5M worldwide
June 14: 2M worldwide
August 30: 4M worldwide
November 8: 4.5M worldwide
December 20: 5M worldwide
January 19: 5.5 worldwide
February 28: 6M worldwide
May 10: 6.5M worldwide

The substantial jump between June and August is because of the launch in China. If we follow just the data coming from the press releases this is how the graph would look:

The red line is the progression shown on the graph, the blue line the progress shown through the press releases. They are similar but I guess they tried to make the graph and the progression look more uniform.

In November they launched in Taiwan. Now my suspect is that the graph was slightly rigged to show better numbers for the western market and impress the investors. I believe that the curve is flatter than that and that the ratio could be more unbalanced toward the eastern market if we consider all the elements.

Let’s have a glance at the future. The trend of the red curve is rather stable, so it’s possible to extend it ideally. Well, if nothing changes we would see the subscriptions climbing at above 8 million just by the end of September. But, hey, it IS September and no other press releases arrived from Blizzard. No 7M worldwide being surpassed. If we also take into consideration the last quarters +2 or +3 on the NA market we would also have the subscriptions for NA dangerously near or above 2M. While if we take the progression from March to September of the last year we would have instead a +2.5, putting the NA subscribers at around 1.8/1.9M *right now*.

If that’s true it would be a safe bet saying that the NA subscribers will climb above 2M BEFORE the launch of the expansion. Again, I doubt it. We’ll see if I’m wrong but I’m not so sure that the NA subscribers are even above 1.5M. That would disprove the data we have now, though. But that’s my suspect.

I’ll wait to see if there will be new announces about our market in the next few months that disproves my theories.


Honestly, I wasn’t expecting the NA market to show that kind of growth between the summer of the last year and now. I thought that the european market would have surpassed it at some point. Instead, if the data on that graph is correct, not only it is still smaller than the NA one, but also growing more slowly. While my estimate gave the NA players at around 1.3M right now, nearly at zero growth. Instead the game is still growing.

It would be interesting to see the results of the 2Q and 3Q 2006 on that graph as it is much more interesting to see how things are going right now that the game is launched in every major region, with the expansion still months away.

I agree with what Raph wrote here:

Given that curve, we can see that WoW likely has not yet stopped growing. It has a tremendous amount of headroom in Asia, and maybe another couple of quarters worth of growth in the West. It looks to me like WoW will crest around 3.5m in the West. Asia is anyone’s guess; the curve can be severely “kinked” by the appearance of a major competitor, and Asia is more likely to create one of those than the West, in my estimation.

With the difference that I think that a major competitor could appear in Asia, but affecting exclusively asian players as I don’t have even an ounce of faith that one of those mmorpgs in development such as Huxley, Sun and all those new titles popping up every day is going to draw much attention in our market.

But hey, there’s Warhammer. It plugs right in a kind of gameplay that is completely screward in WoW: the PvP. So it could become a better answer to a demand coming from the players. DAoC in the last years has been more popular in europe than in NA. WoW demonstrated that the european market is at least as big as the NA one, you just need the right offer. Moreover it seems to me that european players are much more inclined toward a PvP game and the Warhammer brand has always been stronger here.

Ideally Mythic *could* be Blizzard’s most serious competitor.

Animation system in “God of War” (and other thoughts)

I’ve already wrote about this fantastic game and every time I play it I cannot stop myself from analyzing it in its smallest details to try to figure out what makes it so great.

I’m still convinced about all I wrote. Take this quote for example:

“God of War” is completely designed following that simple rule. All the encounters are almost impossible till you figure out the proper tactics to beat them. Once you have mastered them, the game becomes rather simple even at the highest level of difficulty. The game is never frustrating because it encourages you to master the (wonderful) controls and discover the proper patterns through a continued, varied exploration of your possibilities (types of combos, use of the environment, timing, positioning etc.. You have many, leaving space for a lot of “creativity” in how you decide to face a situation. Another fundamental trait of that game, in fact).

And then read it in the light of what I wrote about Diablo-like gameplay anf the two moments:

Observing it from the perspective I’ve described here the game is addicting because it does both “moments” really well. The first moment requires you to solve the level by “reading” it and then planning a course, the second moment is then about the quite challenging execution and the mastering of the movement.

Both of these together keep the game fun and varied, letting you experiment new solutions and then slowly improving and getting used to the control scheme.

I’m talking about another game in this quote, but the same applies to GoW. You need to find a proper tactics to overcome the various passages of the game. This process allows a lot of experimentation, variance and even some player-driven creativity. That’s the first moment. Then there’s always a second moment, because even when you figured out the proper tactics (the “trick” or “epiphany”), you still have to “master” it and execute it well if you want to succeed.

After the first moment the difficulty of the game goes down and you are supposed to easily succeed. The frustration is kept at the minimum because there’s a lot of space for the experimentation and you never find yourself forced into an abrupt stop. “Try again” is fun because you know there’s a lot of space to improve.

So again, there’s discovery from a side, and then practice and execution from the other. These two together are what make the game fun at a very fundamental level.

Then this time through the game I also started to observe some more technical aspects. For example the camera movement and the “level building”, but what amazed me more is the movement patterns of some of the monsters. For example right at the very beginning of the game there are some undead centurions that are constantly moving around you. I tried to figure out what kind of algorithm was used for their movement but without any luck. I was just impressed and I would be really curious to know how they managed to obtain that. It’s definitely a kind of movement that I wouldn’t know how to design.

I wish there were more places where you could learn about design a technology. Like being able to ask “How you did that?” I think I would never stop with the questions.

And finally the animation system on the main character. It’s impressive. But this time I don’t mean the quality of the single animations, but the technology below that interpolates PERFECTLY all the transitions. It’s fluid to the extreme.

Try to point the character against a wall, then slowly move the D-pad to make it walk against that wall, progressively moving the pad more till it makes it run. It’s simply impossible to notice when the walking animation stops and the character starts to run. What kind of animation system is using this game? How they managed to make it so absolutely fluid?

There are no jerky changes of state. You can press two times the square button and the character would finish with the right foot ahead, which then works as a starting position for a third attack. But if you do not trigger that attack, the character triggers another animation to make it move the foot back in the default position. It’s all planned to match perfectly. Timed perfectly.

Another detail I noticed is about the jumping. Even in WoW the characters have a “landing” animation that triggers only if you aren’t moving at the moment of the landing. So if you jump on the place, or stop moving while on the air, the landing animation triggers, while if you jump and continue to run the character switches suddenly to the running animation bypassing the landing one. You could think this is all normal but for example DAoC didn’t have all this “detail” and the characters just performed the landing animation in all cases, looking quite silly since they slid unrealistically on the terrain (this was fixed in one of the most recent patches). In the case of God of War, the game follows a similar pattern to WoW, but I think it even have a really tiny landing animation (or at least a very good interpolation) that makes the transition from the jumping to the running perfect.

The whole point is that, beside the quality of the animations, the console games just seem to have available a MUCH better technology and tools. Why that kind of technical stuff cannot be leveraged? We aren’t talking about netcode, databases and server programming. That’s work that is limited to the client and we should be able to port those achievements to the mmorpgs.

I think it’s about time. Mmorpgs still PALE compared to console games when it comes to technical execution. And that’s one particular field that with the time should become increasingly accessible. I mean, at least when it comes to these technical aspects THERE WILL BE concrete, unavoidable progresses. We can have faith on the industry from this perspective because “we can have shinier things”. Contrarily to the progresses from the design point of view, that requires a different kind of competence and will to push things to the next level.

Hosting Vivendi’s slides wasn’t a goddamn crime

So Blizzard asked us to remove the slides via e-mail. As SirBruce pointed out (and I’m also starting to think that SirBruce is in the wrong field and should have become a lawyer with all that arguing and stubborness so naturally flowing) the request to remove them wasn’t framed as a legal one. I wouldn’t even judge it a threat.

In the meantime I found this:

3. Information presented on www.sec.gov is considered public information and may be distributed or copied.

So I decided to link directly at least the first of the slides with the Blizzard logo. Why? To mock them a lil and because it fits sooo well with the blue on black layout of this site. Pretty.

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SirBruce on the Vivendi presentation slides

Quoting from Q23:


Subsequent to the story breaking, Blizzard has asked various sites who have posted the slides to take them down, citing copyright concerns. I want to make it clear that the material was obtained lawfully by me, that no confidentiality was violated, and that such usage by the media is also protected under the doctrine of fair use. The presentation is on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Comission, and is made available freely to EVERYONE So if you want to see the ENTIRE PRESENTATION yourself, including the slides relevant to Blizzard, simply go here.

And shame on Blizzard for trying to bully the media.

Bruce

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