Quoting Alan Dunkin (and finding the quote took me almost a fucking hour):

Money can come from a lot of places these days.. there’s an entire new generation of dotcom millionaires, energy barons and VC firms that are just waiting on the right project to fork out tons of money.

The premise is: the MMO market is ripe.

Good. This is the best thing. It means that there are the basis to build something excellent. We have ideas, we have the monies, we have wonderful artists. It may be the best moment ever for this genre.

We’ll see. I’m not saying there’s anything wrong, but maybe it would be wise to use that money on something solid instead of wasting everything along with a great opportunity.

I’m copying over some of my comments from FoH about the real state of this market:

I don’t think you can compare the EQ2 launch to VG, the MMO market has exploded since then thanks to WoW.

The idea that WoW opened up the market for other companies is a myth that devs are using as a way to find foundings from all those people out there with lots of money but no brain. And it works.

So. WoW was a good thing because now it’s easier for MMO companies to find the monies. But it’s a dream with short legs.

—

Moorgard: But anyway, I question the notion that WoW has a unique market that won’t shift to any other MMO.

Not as an assumption.

It’s a mistake to consider that as an open market.

1- It WAS a mistake thinking that this big market didn’t exist before WoW.

2- It is a mistake NOW to believe that this market is independent from WoW.

BOTH are mistakes. What people think change with the wind. You have to figure out what’s real and what’s perception. The fact that the MMO market grew for everyone is a wrong perception.

With games, I believe a game that is fun, polished, well-marketed, and easily available for purchase and play can absolutely attract WoW players as well as a huge segment of the population that never tried MMOs before.

SURE. But that’s the point.

To be wrong is the assumption that you automatically have WoW’s players and that today the MMO market is easier because there’s a larger public to feed.

The “Vision” isn’t about stealing someone else’s pie. The Vision is anticipating something that isn’t here yet. A successful game has to move past WoW, not behind it.

The product makes the market. First you have the product, then you have the resulting market. The STUPID idea is that there’s a market that can be fed every sort of product just because there’s an implicit larger demand.

What I’m saying is: the market may be slightly bigger due to exposition, but it’s not as big as people say to justify all this enthusiasm and all sort of stupid start ups. It’s a growth, but it’s a growth completely compensated and even overwhelmed by the stronger competition and (relatively) higher standards and expectations.

Making a MMO today isn’t simpler than how it was five years ago. Arguably, it’s HARDER, more risky and likely to fail.

(and I’m done for a while)