About Bioware and its MMO “not being Bioware enough”

This is a quick “official” update about my “not Bioware enough” claim (that went further in the comments). I got this in a mail long ago but I rarely check that mail and forgot about it at some point.

First “news” is unrelated, Stormwaltz pointed me that CuppaJo, former City of Heroes community manager, moved from this to this. So from CoH to Tabula Rasa, going through that rumor that revealed to be an half-truth (right about people in CS losing job, false about CoH’s subscriptions falling down that much).

So still inside NCSoft, with just some shuffling. Beside this, I’m kind of worried about Guild Wars instead. Something that SirBruce wrote in that thread now seems to receive some confirmations. It seems that Guild Wars is failing its business plan and trying to compensate through microtransactions. Ugh.

And now the part about Bioware:

I just noticed your post from the 9th about the BioWare Austin studio licensing the Hero Engine. To specifically address your concerns about BioWare Austin not being “BioWare enough,” I thought you be interested to know that the core of the studio is half Austin vets (Rich, Gordon, Damion), and half transplanted Edmonton staff; James Ohlen (our creative director, who’s been with the company since Shattered Steel), Emmanuel Lusinchi (tech designer), and Daniel Erickson (writer).

Okay, I take note.

In the meantime Ubiq (who’s working on the combat system for that upcoming Bioware MMO) pointed to an interview with Simutronics about the Hero Engine. I read it but I didn’t find much that is interesting to quote or comment as it’s filled with very generic claims about how they needed the graphic to be state of the art and how it is all so great. It’s not an interview that actually says something concrete and sounds more like they are just trying to advertize and sell the engine.

HeroEngine is a complete solution for MMO developers. We built a client, a server, a toolset for the development team, and a back office billing and customer service solution. The client is not only an advanced graphics engine on par with the industry leaders, but it is tightly integrated with the server for optimizing MMO performance.

We’ve spent five years building HeroEngine, which is now more than three million lines of code plus middleware like SpeedTree, FaceGen, and other best of breed tools we integrated from other vendors.

BioWare Austin wanted to get up and running quickly, and they liked our ability to let them design, test, and prototype what they envision. We’ve known many of the people there for a long time, and we were on the same wavelength.

They also say that they are going to work on console ports in the future.

Something that caught my attention and may hint something about what Bioware is developing is that in the interview they insist a lot on how the engine is flexible and how the gamemasters can build and tweak content on the fly, so becoming an active part in the game through live events and things like that:

Our engine liberates GameMasters from simply being online customer service reps, and lets them be much more active in improving the gameplay experience. They can operate NPCs and monsters in real time, they can build massive quests and other in-game events…

Now we don’t know if Bioware was looking at that flexibility just to start working on the game sooner or if they instead plan to integrate active gamemasters and dynamic content as well. Actually we know nothing at all about the game. It’s fantasy themed, and that’s it.

So I don’t know, but my spider sense tickled at that point and I suspect that there’s something they are planning. It also reminded me an old post, still from Ubiq, where he said they needed a lot of writers. A content-heavy game, maybe, or maybe there’s another, more subtle, motivation.

Nevertheless my opinion remains the same:
“Licencing technology is like buying a roof for your design potential.”

I still think that “game design” cannot be detached and made independent from the technology development needed to realize a potential.

WoW still growing?

Raph does SirBruce and found another investor presentation from Vivendi.

Or maybe not. In fact it the same I already commented, but I was somewhat fooled and went analyzing again the whole thing.

Here is some extrapolated data/best guesses I taken out from the graph, comparing it with the other official sources.

March 05 – 1.4 western [graph] – 550 eu – 850 na [March 17 press release, 500k eu – 800k us]
June 05 – 1.8 (+4) western [graph] – 850 (+3) eu – 950 na (+1)
September 05 – 2 (+2) western (+2) [graph] – 900 eu (+0.5) – 1.1 na (+1.5) [August 30 press release, 1M us]
December 05 – 2.4 (+4) western [graph] – 950 (+0.5) eu 1.4 na (+3)
March 06 – 2.7 (+3) western [graph] – 1.1 (+1.5) eu – 1.6 na (+2) [January 19 press release, 1M eu]

March 05 to 06 – (+1.3M) western – (+ 550) eu – (+750) us
March 05 to 06 – (+4M?) eastern
March 05 to 06 – (+5M) worldwide

However the graph seems a bit imprecise. If we follow the progress of the official press releases this is what we have:

March 17: 1.5M worldwide
June 14: 2M worldwide
August 30: 4M worldwide
November 8: 4.5M worldwide
December 20: 5M worldwide
January 19: 5.5 worldwide
February 28: 6M worldwide
May 10: 6.5M worldwide

The substantial jump between June and August is because of the launch in China. If we follow just the data coming from the press releases this is how the graph would look:

The red line is the progression shown on the graph, the blue line the progress shown through the press releases. They are similar but I guess they tried to make the graph and the progression look more uniform.

In November they launched in Taiwan. Now my suspect is that the graph was slightly rigged to show better numbers for the western market and impress the investors. I believe that the curve is flatter than that and that the ratio could be more unbalanced toward the eastern market if we consider all the elements.

Let’s have a glance at the future. The trend of the red curve is rather stable, so it’s possible to extend it ideally. Well, if nothing changes we would see the subscriptions climbing at above 8 million just by the end of September. But, hey, it IS September and no other press releases arrived from Blizzard. No 7M worldwide being surpassed. If we also take into consideration the last quarters +2 or +3 on the NA market we would also have the subscriptions for NA dangerously near or above 2M. While if we take the progression from March to September of the last year we would have instead a +2.5, putting the NA subscribers at around 1.8/1.9M *right now*.

If that’s true it would be a safe bet saying that the NA subscribers will climb above 2M BEFORE the launch of the expansion. Again, I doubt it. We’ll see if I’m wrong but I’m not so sure that the NA subscribers are even above 1.5M. That would disprove the data we have now, though. But that’s my suspect.

I’ll wait to see if there will be new announces about our market in the next few months that disproves my theories.


Honestly, I wasn’t expecting the NA market to show that kind of growth between the summer of the last year and now. I thought that the european market would have surpassed it at some point. Instead, if the data on that graph is correct, not only it is still smaller than the NA one, but also growing more slowly. While my estimate gave the NA players at around 1.3M right now, nearly at zero growth. Instead the game is still growing.

It would be interesting to see the results of the 2Q and 3Q 2006 on that graph as it is much more interesting to see how things are going right now that the game is launched in every major region, with the expansion still months away.

I agree with what Raph wrote here:

Given that curve, we can see that WoW likely has not yet stopped growing. It has a tremendous amount of headroom in Asia, and maybe another couple of quarters worth of growth in the West. It looks to me like WoW will crest around 3.5m in the West. Asia is anyone’s guess; the curve can be severely “kinked” by the appearance of a major competitor, and Asia is more likely to create one of those than the West, in my estimation.

With the difference that I think that a major competitor could appear in Asia, but affecting exclusively asian players as I don’t have even an ounce of faith that one of those mmorpgs in development such as Huxley, Sun and all those new titles popping up every day is going to draw much attention in our market.

But hey, there’s Warhammer. It plugs right in a kind of gameplay that is completely screward in WoW: the PvP. So it could become a better answer to a demand coming from the players. DAoC in the last years has been more popular in europe than in NA. WoW demonstrated that the european market is at least as big as the NA one, you just need the right offer. Moreover it seems to me that european players are much more inclined toward a PvP game and the Warhammer brand has always been stronger here.

Ideally Mythic *could* be Blizzard’s most serious competitor.

Games for everyone

This is Toady One, aka Tarn Adams, aka the one who stole my gamer’s heart with that absolute masterpiece: Dawarf Fortress.

Toady One: I dislike programming… but even worse for me is talking about technical this or that, and schedules, and coordinating, and needling code-jocks, and other irritations. Now, I don’t mind going over the forums or checking saves, and that kind of thing. It’s not quite fun, but it’s not miserable. However, I write games because the end result is interesting and fun, and for me, the current situation is working. We share games because it’s great to let other people have fun with them too.

Bay 12 Games will never sell a game — when there’s a Chapter III, that will be free too. If it were somehow possible to sell a Chapter III profitably, that would say, what, that “we are now able to live independently because we decided to start restricting access to our games to those that can afford them or steal them”? That’s not what we want to do. I understand other people make a living that way, and I’m not judging them, since you could come up with an equivalent formulation for my day job and judge me as well. However, our games are not a job for us.

This guy is a Legend. And he is expressing an idea that I feel as well. Making games for MORE people and having them pay less, instead of making games for LESS people and having them pay more. It looks like this industry is going in another direction. Finding all sort of tricks to make people pay more. To only spectacularly explode later on because they went too far, out of track (and we have a growing list of examples, as Mythic being “sacrificed” to EA, Sony and the PSX3, and all those attempts with RMT and in-game ad banners that will soon reveal to be just a holes in the water).

The point is that he isn’t anymore just making some random, wacky games. The point is that he created a masterpiece. As a player I was completely absorbed by his game, but more than that, I bit onto the “Vision”. I wish the development could continue without hesitations, making possible what right now is only there, written on a to-do list, waiting to be implemented, eventually.

You dislike programming? Hell, no. You aren’t allowed to say that. You’ve got a great talent there. You just CANNOT waste it like that. You just cannot stop making games and do something else, because you did something great and noone can replace you. That’s a point. A talent is a responsibility. And you did something unique. Like that little dwarf who got possessed by a fey spirit and became a legendary crafter. You are that little dwarf. You built a named item. Now you CANNOT stop. I condemn you to make games.

This guy is too great to develop games casually. And maybe get distracted doing something else. If I was leading a game company I wouldn’t have waited one minute to go and hire him. No matter what he wants to be convinced to work on games *full time*. Other people can teach math. Not him. He has to bring that dream of a game onward.

Have you seen “Misery”? That Stephen King’s book/movie. Well, you’ve got the idea: “Could you close yourself in a room and work on the game fourteen hours a day… Please?”

And I also write this because it’s what I wish I could do. Not work eight hours on something to return home and think about something else. But doing something that absorbs me completely, to which I can dedicate all my time. Where I can lose myself. Not working because I need money, but money so that I can continue doing what I want. The best I can, and not with as little effort as possible.

Money to make games. For as many people as possible. Not games to make money, for the small group who can afford them.

And I wish I could do something, anything to support that small game, beside just a donation (which I did).

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