I noticed this comment from Mark Jacobs:

No successful MMORPG hit its peak within the first year, let alone the first month and that’s the approach we’re taking with WAR.

Age of Conan hit its peak within the first month.

This is not 2001, the market radically changed and the same for the players’ trends. Subscription numbers are much more fluid now and “loyal” fans much rarer. Things happen more quickly. You need to be ready of losing substantial numbers as to see them coming back.

I’ll point to this 2007 quote for something more up-to-date:

In online games beyond the boutique scale, you are #1 or you are Everyone Else.

“#1” obeys certain rules that I won’t get into, but stability-to-growth becomes easier and you’re far more protected from loss, barring extreme triggers.

For “Everyone Else,” the converse is true: You are generally in a net state of subtraction over time. It’s just a matter of the rate. It takes extreme triggers to cause stability or gain.

For an MMO in the Everyone Else category, overall stability is actually a significant victory.

With WotLK coming next month stability for Warhammer would be already an impressive achievement. If they expect a growth between now and December then I believe they are set for a harsh surprise.

The real match starts with the next year. Who will succeed is the one who reacts more promptly and effectively. Blizzard has a history of being really slow. Mythic has the resources and skills to become a serious competitor but it is crucial that they arrive at that point with a game that is in the best shape as possible. And this implies not being scared of addressing problems at the root. It is going to be like a fencing duel with plenty of back and forth. The steady and slow growth or decline? Is a thing of the past.

WotLK is a storm that will happen soon but that will also pass. The same “window” that opened in September for the potential success of Warhammer, will likely open again with the next year, when the players will start to lose some interest in the other game.

It remains to be seen in what state Warhammer will be at that point.

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EDIT: This one explains it better:

so far, they’re showing that they have no idea how to apply the right kinds of bandaid fixes. They’re undershooting everything with the understanding that some time in the future they can add another fix, whereas they really need to be overshooting their solutions because WotLK is almost here and they really need to cement their player base. The fact of the matter is, with a MMO a large part of it is getting the start right. If your grindy, imbalanced, life-sucking game gets a bad rep (ala Vanguard) no one will want anything to do with it. The key for WAR is to be clearly better than WoW at some stuff (which it is, RvR) and not much worse than WoW at other stuff (everything else, which sadly it isn’t). Otherwise your game gets a clownshoes rep, a la AoC. Who of us is playing that one atm? Hmm?